UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Holly Holm (8-6) taking on Bethe Correia (5-5-1). Holm is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Holm is rated at 1127 — 244 points above Correia's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Correia throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Correia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Holm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Holly Holm over Bethe Correia. The model is firm on this one: Holm at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Holm at 82% implied while our model sees 88% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17).

Tybura is rated at 1242 — 384 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tybura's wrestler game against Arlovski's knockout artist approach. Tybura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Arlovski is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tybura throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Andrei Arlovski. The model is firm on this one: Tybura at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Tybura at 68% implied while our model sees 76% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Dong Hyun Kim (13-3). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Covington is rated at 1630 — 312 points above Kim's 1318. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kim is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Covington the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Colby Covington over Dong Hyun Kim. The model is firm on this one: Covington at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Covington at 73% implied while our model sees 79% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14) taking on Tarec Saffiedine (2-3).

Anjos is rated at 1282 — 166 points above Saffiedine's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anjos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Saffiedine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Dos Anjos over Tarec Saffiedine. The model gives Anjos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jon Tuck (4-4) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8). Tuck is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Tuck is rated at 1006 — 275 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tuck's all-rounder game against Gomi's striker approach. Tuck is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tuck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Tuck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Tuck over Takanori Gomi. The model is firm on this one: Tuck at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Walt Harris (6-8) taking on Cyril Asker (2-2). Harris is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Harris is rated at 1133 — 230 points above Asker's 904. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Asker throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Asker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Harris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Walt Harris over Cyril Asker. The model is firm on this one: Harris at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Alex Caceres (16-12) taking on Rolando Dy (1-2). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 419 points above Dy's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Dy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Rolando Dy. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 73% for Caceres, but our model sees only 65%. That 8-point gap favoring Dy is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Yuta Sasaki (4-4) taking on Justin Scoggins (4-4). Sasaki is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sasaki at 1009 versus Scoggins at 861. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scoggins throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Scoggins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Scoggins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Scoggins over Yuta Sasaki. We're leaning Scoggins here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sasaki at 18% implied while our model sees 34% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Li Jingliang (11-6) taking on Frank Camacho (2-5).

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 481 points above Camacho's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jingliang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Camacho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Li Jingliang over Frank Camacho. The model is firm on this one: Jingliang at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Jingliang at 79% implied while our model sees 86% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Russell Doane (3-4) taking on Kwan Ho Kwak (0-1).

Doane is rated at 952 — 186 points above Kwak's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kwak throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Doane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Doane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Russell Doane over Kwan Ho Kwak. The model gives Doane a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Doane at 48% implied while our model sees 58% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Naoki Inoue (1-0) taking on Carls John De Tomas (0-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Inoue.

Inoue is rated at 992 — 161 points above Tomas's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tomas throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tomas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tomas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carls John De Tomas over Naoki Inoue. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tomas at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lucie Pudilova (3-7) taking on Ji Yeon Kim (3-6). Kim will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Pudilova at 803 versus Kim at 723. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Pudilova's all-rounder game against Kim's striker approach. Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Kim brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pudilova throws significantly more leather — a 6.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucie Pudilova over Ji Yeon Kim. The model gives Pudilova a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Pudilova at 54% implied while our model sees 60% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.