UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Jose Aldo (14-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Holloway.

Holloway is rated at 1897 — 477 points above Aldo's 1420. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Holloway's knockout artist game against Aldo's all-rounder approach. Holloway is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Aldo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Aldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Aldo over Max Holloway. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aldo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Holloway at 43% implied while our model sees 49% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Claudia Gadelha (7-4) taking on Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-9).

Gadelha is rated at 1187 — 316 points above Kowalkiewicz's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Gadelha looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kowalkiewicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gadelha the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kowalkiewicz throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Gadelha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Karolina Kowalkiewicz. We're leaning Gadelha here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11).

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 191 points above Marquardt's 1064. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Belfort's knockout artist game against Marquardt's all-rounder approach. Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Marquardt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Nate Marquardt. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Belfort at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Belfort, but our model sees only 50%. That 10-point gap favoring Marquardt is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Paulo Costa (6-4) taking on Oluwale Bamgbose (1-3). Bamgbose will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Costa is rated at 1513 — 738 points above Bamgbose's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 15.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Bamgbose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paulo Costa over Oluwale Bamgbose. We're leaning Costa here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Yancy Medeiros (6-7) taking on Erick Silva (7-7).

Medeiros carries a modest Elo edge (999 to 951), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Medeiros's knockout artist game against Silva's wrestler approach. Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erick Silva over Yancy Medeiros. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Medeiros, but our model sees only 50%. That 7-point gap favoring Silva is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raphael Assuncao (12-6) taking on Marlon Moraes (5-5).

Moraes carries a modest Elo edge (1155 to 1099), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Moraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Moraes over Raphael Assuncao. We're leaning Moraes here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4) taking on Eric Spicely (2-4). Junior will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Junior is rated at 1144 — 417 points above Spicely's 727. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Junior throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Junior has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Eric Spicely. The model is firm on this one: Junior at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Junior at 72% implied while our model sees 81% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Matthew Lopez (2-3) taking on Johnny Eduardo (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lopez at 999 versus Eduardo at 873. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Lopez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Eduardo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lopez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eduardo throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Eduardo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Lopez over Johnny Eduardo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lopez at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 57% for Lopez, but our model sees only 50%. That 7-point gap favoring Eduardo is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brian Kelleher (8-8) taking on Iuri Alcantara (10-6). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 280 points above Kelleher's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Kelleher looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alcantara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kelleher the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alcantara throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Alcantara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iuri Alcantara over Brian Kelleher. The model gives Alcantara a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Viviane Pereira (2-1) taking on Jamie Moyle (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pereira at 963 versus Moyle at 864. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moyle throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Moyle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Viviane Pereira over Jamie Moyle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Pereira, but our model sees only 52%. That 7-point gap favoring Moyle is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Luan Chagas (1-1-1) taking on Jim Wallhead (0-1).

Chagas is rated at 973 — 153 points above Wallhead's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wallhead throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chagas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Wallhead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luan Chagas over Jim Wallhead. The model is firm on this one: Chagas at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Chagas at 70% implied while our model sees 77% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1) taking on Marco Beltran (3-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Beltran.

Figueiredo is rated at 1490 — 673 points above Beltran's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Figueiredo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Beltran over Deiveson Figueiredo. The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 57% for Figueiredo, but our model sees only 36%. That 21-point gap favoring Beltran is worth watching.