UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov
Saturday, April 22, 2017·Nashville, Tennessee, USA·13 fights
Model: 11/13(85%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Cub Swanson won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Swanson 86%14% Lobov
Over/UnderOver 74%
Under 26%Over 74%
STRONGMarket: 84% (+1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +409(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Swanson)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by KO/TKO (R1)
Iaquinta 83%17% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+4.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +275(favors Iaquinta)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Sanchez)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ovince Saint Preux won by Submission (R2)
Preux 46%54% Lima
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Preux)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Preux)
BantamweightHIT
John Dodson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dodson 87%13% Wineland
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+7.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Dodson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Wineland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Dodson)
LightweightHIT
Stevie Ray won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Ray 74%26% Lauzon
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 63% (+11.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -144(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lauzon)
WelterweightHIT
Mike Perry won by KO/TKO (R2)
Perry 64%36% Ellenberger
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 55% (+8.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Perry)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Perry)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ellenberger)
Prelims
MiddleweightMISS
Thales Leites won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leites 44%56% Alvey
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 53% (-9.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -49(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Leites)
FlyweightHIT
Brandon Moreno won by Submission (R2)
Moreno 63%37% Ortiz
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEANMarket: 44% (+18.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +205(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Moreno)
LightweightHIT
Scott Holtzman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holtzman 81%19% McBride
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+8.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +7(favors Holtzman)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Holtzman)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Danielle Taylor won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Taylor 73%27% Penne
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
CONFIDENTMarket: 51% (+22.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +199(favors Taylor)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Penne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Penne)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Alexis Davis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Davis 82%18% Dandois
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+10.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +82(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.5(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Davis)
WelterweightHIT
Bryan Barberena won by KO/TKO (R1)
Barberena 76%24% Proctor
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+1.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +364(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Barberena)
FlyweightHIT
Hector Sandoval won by KO/TKO (R1)
Sandoval 66%34% Schnell
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 44% (+22.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +209(favors Sandoval)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Sandoval)