UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
Saturday, April 8, 2017·Buffalo, New York, USA·13 fights
Model: 10/13(77%)
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Main Card
Light HeavyweightHIT
Daniel Cormier won by Submission (R2)
Cormier 50%50% Johnson
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
TOSS-UPMarket: 47% (+3.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Johnson)
MiddleweightHIT
Gegard Mousasi won by KO/TKO (R2)
Mousasi 66%34% Weidman
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
CONFIDENTMarket: 52% (+14.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Mousasi)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Mousasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Weidman)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cynthia Calvillo won by Submission (R3)
Calvillo 76%24% Gonzalez
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+3.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +150(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Calvillo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Calvillo)
WelterweightHIT
Thiago Alves won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Alves 52%48% Cote
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+7.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +53(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Cote)
LightweightMISS
Charles Oliveira won by Submission (R1)
Oliveira 43%57% Brooks
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
LEANMarket: 33% (+10.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +258(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Oliveira)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Myles Jury won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jury 84%16% Torre
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 79% (+4.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +411(favors Jury)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Torre)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Jury)
WelterweightHIT
Kamaru Usman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Usman 76%24% Strickland
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 73% (+3.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +130(favors Usman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.9(favors Usman)
FeatherweightHIT
Shane Burgos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Burgos 77%23% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 67% (+10.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Burgos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Burgos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Rosa)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Patrick Cummins won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummins 55%45% Blachowicz
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
LEANMarket: 49% (+6.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +110(favors Cummins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Cummins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.9(favors Cummins)
Early Prelims
LightweightHIT
Gregor Gillespie won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gillespie 81%19% Holbrook
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 71% (+10.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +79(favors Gillespie)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Gillespie)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Gillespie)
LightweightMISS
Desmond Green won by Decision - Split (R3)
Green 24%76% Emmett
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 33% (-9.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -234(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.7(favors Emmett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Emmett)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cerminara 75%25% Aldana
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
CONFIDENT
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +158(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.0(favors Aldana)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Aldana)
FlyweightMISS
Bibulatov Magomed won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomed 48%52% Lausa
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -97(favors Lausa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Lausa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Lausa)