UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimi Manuwa (6-5) taking on Corey Anderson (10-4).

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 389 points above Manuwa's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Manuwa's all-rounder game against Anderson's striker approach. Manuwa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Anderson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jimi Manuwa over Corey Anderson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Manuwa at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for Manuwa, but our model sees only 50%. That 6-point gap favoring Anderson is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Gunnar Nelson (10-5) taking on Alan Jouban (7-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nelson at 1310 versus Jouban at 1168. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Nelson's wrestler game against Jouban's striker approach. Nelson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jouban brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jouban throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nelson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Jouban has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gunnar Nelson over Alan Jouban.** The model is firm on this one: Nelson at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Nelson at 74% implied while our model sees 82% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Brad Pickett (5-8). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 626 points above Pickett's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pickett throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pickett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marlon Vera over Brad Pickett.** We're leaning Vera here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Vera at 44% implied while our model sees 67% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Arnold Allen (11-2) taking on Makwan Amirkhani (7-6). Amirkhani is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Allen is rated at 1468 — 504 points above Amirkhani's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Amirkhani looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Amirkhani the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amirkhani throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Amirkhani is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani over Arnold Allen.** The model gives Amirkhani a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Duffy (4-3) taking on Reza Madadi (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Madadi at 1046 versus Duffy at 958. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Duffy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Madadi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Madadi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duffy throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Madadi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Madadi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joe Duffy over Reza Madadi.** The model gives Duffy a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Francimar Barroso (4-3) taking on Darren Stewart (5-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Barroso at 961, Stewart at 940. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Barroso's striker game against Stewart's all-rounder approach. Barroso brings a versatile approach, while Stewart is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stewart throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stewart is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.9 more per 15 minutes. Stewart has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Stewart over Francimar Barroso.** We're leaning Stewart here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Barroso, but our model sees only 31%. That 7-point gap favoring Stewart is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Timothy Johnson (3-3) taking on Daniel Omielanczuk (4-4). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1067 versus Omielanczuk at 960. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Omielanczuk throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Timothy Johnson over Daniel Omielanczuk.** We're leaning Johnson here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 63% implied while our model sees 69% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-4) taking on Vicente Luque (16-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Edwards.

Edwards is rated at 1596 — 346 points above Luque's 1250. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Luque is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Luque the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vicente Luque over Leon Edwards.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Luque at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Marc Diakiese (7-7) taking on Teemu Packalen (1-2). Packalen is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Diakiese is rated at 1050 — 206 points above Packalen's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Packalen throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Diakiese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Teemu Packalen.** We're leaning Diakiese here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Diakiese at 66% implied while our model sees 74% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Brad Scott (3-4) taking on Scott Askham (2-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Scott at 884, Askham at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Scott's wrestler game against Askham's knockout artist approach. Scott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Askham is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Scott throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Scott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Scott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brad Scott over Scott Askham.** The model gives Scott a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Scott at 42% implied while our model sees 62% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lina Lansberg (4-6) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7).

Lansberg carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 803), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Lansberg's striker game against Pudilova's all-rounder approach. Lansberg brings a versatile approach, while Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lansberg throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pudilova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pudilova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lina Lansberg over Lucie Pudilova.** We're leaning Lansberg here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 74% for Lansberg, but our model sees only 69%. That 5-point gap favoring Pudilova is worth watching.