UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum
Saturday, March 11, 2017·Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil·12 fights
Model: 7/10(70%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✗✓✗✓✓✗✓✓✓
Main Card
Middleweight
Belfort 17%83% Gastelum
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
STRONGMarket: 24% (-6.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Gastelum)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Gastelum)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Mauricio Rua won by KO/TKO (R3)
Rua 55%45% Villante
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEANMarket: 58% (-2.9% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors Rua)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Villante)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Rua)
LightweightMISS
Edson Barboza won by KO/TKO (R2)
Barboza 45%55% Dariush
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
TOSS-UPMarket: 60% (-14.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Dariush)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Dariush)
FlyweightHIT
Ray Borg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Borg 55%45% Formiga
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -3(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Borg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Borg)
Women's Bantamweight
Correia 63%37% Reneau
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 49% (+14.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +117(favors Correia)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Correia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Reneau)
WelterweightMISS
Alex Oliveira won by Submission (R2)
Oliveira 43%57% Means
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 36% (+6.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Oliveira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Oliveira)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Kevin Lee won by Submission (R2)
Lee 74%26% Trinaldo
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+13.3% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -4(favors Trinaldo)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Trinaldo)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Lee)
WelterweightHIT
Sergio Moraes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moraes 66%34% Ramos
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-1.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +471(favors Moraes)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Moraes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Moraes)
BantamweightMISS
Joe Soto won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Soto 47%53% Yahya
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
TOSS-UPMarket: 35% (+11.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Soto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Yahya)
LightweightHIT
Michel Prazeres won by Submission (R1)
Prazeres 73%27% Burkman
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +388(favors Prazeres)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Burkman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Prazeres)
FeatherweightHIT
Jeremy Kennedy won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kennedy 63%37% Jason
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 52% (+11.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -8(favors Jason)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Kennedy)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.2(favors Kennedy)
MiddleweightHIT
Paulo Costa won by KO/TKO (R1)
Costa 73%27% McLellan
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
CONFIDENTMarket: 73% (+0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +119(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors McLellan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors McLellan)