UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Saturday, March 4, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Tyron Woodley won by Decision - Majority (R5)
Woodley 60%40% Thompson
LEANMarket: 42% (+17.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +70(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Woodley)
LightweightMISS
David Teymur won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Teymur 33%67% Vannata
CONFIDENTMarket: 23% (+10.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +32(favors Teymur)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Teymur)
MiddleweightMISS
Daniel Kelly won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kelly 35%65% Evans
CONFIDENTMarket: 26% (+9.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -136(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Kelly)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Cynthia Calvillo won by Submission (R1)
Calvillo 43%57% Cooper
LEANMarket: 53% (-9.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +25(favors Calvillo)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.7(favors Cooper)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Cooper)
HeavyweightHIT
Alistair Overeem won by KO/TKO (R3)
Overeem 78%22% Hunt
STRONGMarket: 56% (+22.0% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +100(favors Overeem)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Overeem)
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by KO/TKO (R3)
Tybura 60%40% Henrique
LEANMarket: 60% (+0.2% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -82(favors Henrique)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Tybura)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Henrique)
FeatherweightMISS
Darren Elkins won by KO/TKO (R3)
Elkins 31%69% Bektic
CONFIDENTMarket: 15% (+16.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +74(favors Elkins)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Elkins)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Elkins)
BantamweightHIT
Iuri Alcantara won by Submission (R2)
Alcantara 64%36% Sanders
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +34(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Sanders)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Alcantara)
HeavyweightHIT
Mark Godbeer won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Godbeer 54%46% Spitz
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -84(favors Spitz)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Godbeer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Spitz)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Tyson Pedro won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pedro 74%26% Craig
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+18.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -91(favors Craig)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.5(favors Craig)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.1(favors Pedro)
BantamweightMISS
Albert Morales won by Decision - Split (R3)
Morales 47%53% Soukhamthath
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-8.4% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Soukhamthath)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.5(favors Morales)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Morales)