UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne
Sunday, February 19, 2017·Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada·11 fights
Model: 9/11(82%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lewis 54%46% Browne
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+2.6% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Browne)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Browne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Browne)
MiddleweightHIT
Johny Hendricks won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hendricks 64%36% Lombard
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 48% (+16.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +184(favors Hendricks)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Lombard)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Hendricks)
FeatherweightHIT
Gavin Tucker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tucker 66%34% Sicilia
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+4.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +123(favors Tucker)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Sicilia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Sicilia)
MiddleweightMISS
Elias Theodorou won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Theodorou 42%58% Ferreira
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 48% (-6.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +13(favors Theodorou)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Ferreira)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Sara McMann won by Submission (R1)
McMann 86%14% Mazany
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +208(favors McMann)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors McMann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors McMann)
LightweightHIT
Paul Felder won by KO/TKO (R1)
Felder 88%12% Ricci
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+11.8% edge)
→Elo gap: +336(favors Felder)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Felder)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Felder)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ponzinibbio 81%19% Taleb
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+4.7% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +29(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors Taleb)
Women's StrawweightMISS
Randa Markos won by Decision - Split (R3)
Markos 31%69% Esparza
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 28% (+2.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -247(favors Esparza)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Markos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Esparza)
BantamweightHIT
Aiemann Zahabi won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Zahabi 62%38% Vieira
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
LEANMarket: 66% (-4.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -33(favors Vieira)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.4(favors Vieira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Vieira)
MiddleweightHIT
Thiago Santos won by KO/TKO (R2)
Santos 66%34% Marshman
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
CONFIDENTMarket: 62% (+4.0% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -207(favors Marshman)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Marshman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Santos)
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R1)
Meerschaert 77%23% Janes
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
STRONGMarket: 72% (+4.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +5(favors Meerschaert)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Janes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Janes)