UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Ronda Rousey (6-1). Nunes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 433 points above Rousey's 1203. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rousey throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rousey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Ronda Rousey. The model is firm on this one: Nunes at 81%.

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Dominick Cruz (7-2). Cruz will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cruz is rated at 1446 — 291 points above Garbrandt's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garbrandt's striker game against Cruz's wrestler approach. Garbrandt brings a versatile approach, while Cruz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garbrandt throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Dominick Cruz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garbrandt at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on John Lineker (12-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Dillashaw.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dillashaw at 1581 versus Lineker at 1455. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Dillashaw's all-rounder game against Lineker's knockout artist approach. Dillashaw is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lineker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Dillashaw has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Lineker over TJ Dillashaw. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lineker at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on Tarec Saffiedine (2-3). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Kim is rated at 1318 — 202 points above Saffiedine's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Kim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Saffiedine is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Kim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saffiedine throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Tarec Saffiedine. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kim at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Ray Borg (7-4) taking on Louis Smolka (8-8). Smolka is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Borg is rated at 1172 — 298 points above Smolka's 874. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Borg looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Smolka is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Borg the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smolka throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Borg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ray Borg over Louis Smolka. The model gives Borg a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on Johny Hendricks (13-7). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 11-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 202 points above Hendricks's 1068. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Magny looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hendricks is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Magny the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Neil Magny over Johny Hendricks. We're leaning Magny here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4) taking on Marvin Vettori (9-7-1). Junior is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Vettori at 1280 versus Junior at 1144. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Junior looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vettori is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Junior the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vettori throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Vettori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Marvin Vettori. The model gives Junior a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Garcia (5-4) taking on Mike Pyle (10-8). Pyle is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Garcia is rated at 1006 — 175 points above Pyle's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garcia's striker game against Pyle's wrestler approach. Garcia brings a versatile approach, while Pyle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pyle throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Pyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Garcia over Mike Pyle. The model gives Garcia a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Niko Price (8-9) taking on Brandon Thatch (2-3).

Thatch carries a modest Elo edge (861 to 816), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Price's all-rounder game against Thatch's striker approach. Price is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Thatch brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thatch throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Thatch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Niko Price over Brandon Thatch. The model gives Price a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-9) taking on Tim Means (15-13). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Means.

Oliveira carries a modest Elo edge (934 to 872), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Oliveira's wrestler game against Means's knockout artist approach. Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Means is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Tim Means. We're leaning Oliveira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.