UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Derrick Lewis (20-10) taking on Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5). Lewis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lewis is rated at 1366 — 348 points above Abdurakhimov's 1018. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdurakhimov throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdurakhimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derrick Lewis over Shamil Abdurakhimov.** We're leaning Lewis here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Francis Ngannou (11-2) taking on Anthony Hamilton (3-6). Ngannou will look to use a 7-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ngannou is rated at 2148 — 1427 points above Hamilton's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ngannou rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ngannou is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hamilton brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Ngannou the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Ngannou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francis Ngannou over Anthony Hamilton.** The model is firm on this one: Ngannou at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Ngannou at 80% implied while our model sees 90% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-4) taking on Sean O'Connell (2-4). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1459 — 556 points above O'Connell's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Anderson's striker game against O'Connell's all-rounder approach. Anderson brings a versatile approach, while O'Connell is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Connell throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Anderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Corey Anderson over Sean O'Connell.** The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 78% implied while our model sees 91% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Gian Villante (7-10) taking on Saparbeg Safarov (1-2).

Safarov is rated at 916 — 211 points above Villante's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Villante throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Villante is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Safarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gian Villante over Saparbeg Safarov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Villante at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Justine Kish (3-3) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-7). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kish at 900 versus Yoder at 766. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kish throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Kish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Yoder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ashley Yoder over Justine Kish.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yoder at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 67% for Kish, but our model sees only 47%. That 19-point gap favoring Yoder is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Brian Camozzi (0-2).

Brown is rated at 1381 — 598 points above Camozzi's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Camozzi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Brown over Brian Camozzi.** The model gives Brown a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 59% implied while our model sees 63% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Joseph Gigliotti (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Meerschaert at 867, Gigliotti at 846. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gigliotti throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gigliotti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Joseph Gigliotti.** We're leaning Meerschaert here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Andrew Sanchez (5-4) taking on Trevor Smith (5-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Sanchez at 932, Smith at 934. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Smith's wrestler approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Smith looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrew Sanchez over Trevor Smith.** We're leaning Sanchez here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Sanchez at 65% implied while our model sees 69% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Shane Burgos (7-3) taking on Tiago dos Santos e Silva (2-1). Burgos is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Burgos is rated at 1365 — 455 points above Silva's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Burgos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Burgos over Tiago dos Santos e Silva.** The model gives Burgos a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Marc Diakiese (7-7) taking on Frankie Perez (1-2).

Diakiese is rated at 1050 — 155 points above Perez's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diakiese throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Diakiese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Diakiese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marc Diakiese over Frankie Perez.** The model is firm on this one: Diakiese at 82%. Notably, the betting market has Diakiese at 71% implied while our model sees 82% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Ryan Janes (1-2) taking on Keith Berish (0-0).

Janes is rated at 1072 — 157 points above Berish's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Berish throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Berish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Berish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ryan Janes over Keith Berish.** We're leaning Janes here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Juliana Lima (3-3) taking on JJ Aldrich (9-6).

Aldrich is rated at 1079 — 178 points above Lima's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Aldrich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JJ Aldrich over Juliana Lima.** The model gives Aldrich a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.