UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-7) taking on Derek Brunson (14-7). Brunson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Whittaker is rated at 1722 — 159 points above Brunson's 1563. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Brunson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Brunson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Brunson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derek Brunson over Robert Whittaker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brunson at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Andrew Holbrook (2-3) taking on Jake Matthews (15-8). Matthews will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Matthews is rated at 1398 — 660 points above Holbrook's 738. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Matthews over Andrew Holbrook. We're leaning Matthews here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Holbrook at 20% implied while our model sees 25% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-5-1) taking on Kyle Noke (6-6). Noke will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Akhmedov is rated at 1411 — 469 points above Noke's 942. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Akhmedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Noke is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Akhmedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Kyle Noke. The model gives Akhmedov a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (15-3) taking on Yusuke Kasuya (0-2).

Volkanovski is rated at 1939 — 1166 points above Kasuya's 773. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kasuya throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kasuya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yusuke Kasuya over Alexander Volkanovski. The model gives Kasuya a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tyson Pedro (6-5) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-7). Pedro is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jr. is rated at 1559 — 526 points above Pedro's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jr. brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Pedro the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tyson Pedro over Khalil Rountree Jr.. The model gives Pedro a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Danielle Taylor (2-3) taking on Seo Hee Ham (1-3). Ham is the bigger frame at 5'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Taylor at 871 versus Ham at 791. That 80-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ham throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danielle Taylor over Seo Hee Ham. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taylor at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Taylor at 47% implied while our model sees 52% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-4) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-10). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Kelly at 1127 versus Camozzi at 1038. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Daniel Kelly. The model gives Camozzi a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Kelly at 33% implied while our model sees 36% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Damien Brown (2-4) taking on Jon Tuck (4-5). Tuck will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tuck is rated at 1041 — 188 points above Brown's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuck throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Tuck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damien Brown over Jon Tuck. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Brown at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 45% implied while our model sees 52% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jonathan Meunier (1-1) taking on Richard Walsh (2-4).

Meunier is rated at 1071 — 218 points above Walsh's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walsh throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Richard Walsh over Jonathan Meunier. The model gives Walsh a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 48% for Meunier, but our model sees only 44%. That 5-point gap favoring Walsh is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Ben Nguyen (4-3) taking on Geane Herrera (1-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nguyen at 1099 versus Herrera at 992. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nguyen throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Herrera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Herrera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ben Nguyen over Geane Herrera. The model gives Nguyen a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Nguyen at 52% implied while our model sees 63% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jason Knight (4-5) taking on Dan Hooker (14-10). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1533 — 477 points above Knight's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Knight's knockout artist game against Hooker's all-rounder approach. Knight is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason Knight over Dan Hooker. The model gives Knight a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-11) taking on Guangyou Ning (2-2). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1489 — 515 points above Ning's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ning throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ning is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ning has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Guangyou Ning. The model gives Vera a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jenel Lausa (1-3) taking on Yao Zhikui (1-3). Lausa will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Zhikui at 818 versus Lausa at 715. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhikui throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhikui is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lausa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yao Zhikui over Jenel Lausa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zhikui at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.