UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Derek Brunson (14-6). Brunson will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Whittaker at 1528 versus Brunson at 1402. That 126-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Whittaker's striker game against Brunson's submission artist approach. Whittaker brings a versatile approach, while Brunson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Whittaker throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Brunson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Derek Brunson.** The model gives Whittaker a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Whittaker at 44% implied while our model sees 56% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Andrew Holbrook (2-2) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7). Matthews will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Matthews is rated at 1295 — 544 points above Holbrook's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Matthews has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Matthews throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Matthews over Andrew Holbrook.** The model is firm on this one: Matthews at 78%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Omari Akhmedov (9-4-1) taking on Kyle Noke (6-5). Noke will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Akhmedov is rated at 1303 — 434 points above Noke's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Akhmedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Noke is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Akhmedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noke throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Akhmedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Noke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Omari Akhmedov over Kyle Noke.** We're leaning Akhmedov here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Akhmedov at 58% implied while our model sees 69% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Volkanovski (14-3) taking on Yusuke Kasuya (0-1).

Volkanovski is rated at 1824 — 992 points above Kasuya's 832. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kasuya throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kasuya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yusuke Kasuya over Alexander Volkanovski.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kasuya at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tyson Pedro (6-4) taking on Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-6). Pedro is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Jr. is rated at 1506 — 491 points above Pedro's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jr. brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Pedro the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tyson Pedro over Khalil Rountree Jr..** The model gives Pedro a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Danielle Taylor (2-2) taking on Seo Hee Ham (1-2). Ham is the bigger frame at 5'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Taylor carries a modest Elo edge (892 to 856), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ham throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danielle Taylor over Seo Hee Ham.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taylor at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Taylor at 47% implied while our model sees 53% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Daniel Kelly (6-3) taking on Chris Camozzi (9-9). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kelly carries a modest Elo edge (1052 to 986), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Daniel Kelly.** The model is firm on this one: Camozzi at 78%. The market implies 33% for Kelly, but our model sees only 22%. That 11-point gap favoring Camozzi is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Damien Brown (2-3) taking on Jon Tuck (4-4). Tuck will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tuck is rated at 1006 — 152 points above Brown's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuck throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Tuck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jon Tuck over Damien Brown.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tuck at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 45% implied while our model sees 49% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Jonathan Meunier (0-1) taking on Richard Walsh (2-3).

Meunier is rated at 1023 — 181 points above Walsh's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Walsh throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Richard Walsh over Jonathan Meunier.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Walsh at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Ben Nguyen (4-2) taking on Geane Herrera (1-2).

Nguyen carries a modest Elo edge (1036 to 972), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nguyen throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Herrera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Herrera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ben Nguyen over Geane Herrera.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nguyen at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Jason Knight (4-4) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Hooker is rated at 1450 — 463 points above Knight's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Knight's knockout artist game against Hooker's all-rounder approach. Knight is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hooker is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Knight is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Knight over Dan Hooker.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Knight at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Guangyou Ning (2-1). Vera is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Vera is rated at 1460 — 456 points above Ning's 1004. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ning throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ning is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ning has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Guangyou Ning over Marlon Vera.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ning at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Jenel Lausa (1-2) taking on Yao Zhikui (1-2). Lausa will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Zhikui carries a modest Elo edge (857 to 795), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhikui throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Zhikui is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lausa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jenel Lausa over Yao Zhikui.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lausa at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.