UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8). Hall will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 383 points above Hall's 1378. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mousasi looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mousasi the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mousasi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Uriah Hall. The model is firm on this one: Mousasi at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (6-4) taking on Ross Pearson (12-12).

Ray is rated at 1193 — 344 points above Pearson's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ray's all-rounder game against Pearson's striker approach. Ray is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearson throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stevie Ray over Ross Pearson. We're leaning Ray here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ray at 50% implied while our model sees 66% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (12-5) taking on Timothy Johnson (3-3). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Volkov is rated at 1754 — 688 points above Johnson's 1067. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Volkov's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Volkov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Volkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Timothy Johnson over Alexander Volkov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Volkov at 43% implied while our model sees 47% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Artem Lobov (2-4) taking on Teruto Ishihara (3-4-1). Ishihara will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lobov at 945 versus Ishihara at 817. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ishihara throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ishihara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ishihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Teruto Ishihara over Artem Lobov. The model is firm on this one: Ishihara at 78%. The market implies 31% for Lobov, but our model sees only 22%. That 9-point gap favoring Ishihara is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Jack Marshman (3-4) taking on Magnus Cedenblad (4-1). Cedenblad is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cedenblad at 1063 versus Marshman at 915. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Cedenblad has won 4 straight.

Stylistically this is Marshman's striker game against Cedenblad's wrestler approach. Marshman brings a versatile approach, while Cedenblad looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cedenblad throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cedenblad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Marshman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Magnus Cedenblad over Jack Marshman. The model is firm on this one: Cedenblad at 82%. The market implies 31% for Marshman, but our model sees only 18%. That 13-point gap favoring Cedenblad is worth watching.

The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Ali Bagautinov (4-2).

Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 340 points above Bagautinov's 1188. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Horiguchi's striker game against Bagautinov's wrestler approach. Horiguchi brings a versatile approach, while Bagautinov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horiguchi throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bagautinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Horiguchi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi over Ali Bagautinov. We're leaning Horiguchi here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Magomed Mustafaev (3-1). Lee will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lee carries a modest Elo edge (1197 to 1151), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kevin Lee over Magomed Mustafaev. The model is firm on this one: Lee at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Lee at 53% implied while our model sees 77% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Cooper (2-3) taking on Anna Elmose (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Cooper at 803, Elmose at 807. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elmose throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Elmose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elmose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anna Elmose over Amanda Cooper. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elmose at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Cooper, but our model sees only 49%. That 3-point gap favoring Elmose is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Justin Ledet (3-3) taking on Mark Godbeer (2-1). Ledet will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Godbeer at 904 versus Ledet at 756. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ledet throws significantly more leather — a 7.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Godbeer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Godbeer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Ledet over Mark Godbeer. We're leaning Ledet here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Ledet at 57% implied while our model sees 73% — a 16-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Zak Cummings (9-4) taking on Alexander Yakovlev (3-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yakovlev.

Cummings is rated at 1357 — 387 points above Yakovlev's 970. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cummings's all-rounder game against Yakovlev's striker approach. Cummings is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yakovlev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummings throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummings is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Cummings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zak Cummings over Alexander Yakovlev. The model gives Cummings a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Marion Reneau (5-6-1) taking on Milana Dudieva (1-1).

Reneau carries a modest Elo edge (878 to 837), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dudieva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marion Reneau over Milana Dudieva. The model gives Reneau a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for Reneau, but our model sees only 62%. That 4-point gap favoring Dudieva is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Brett Johns (4-2) taking on Kwan Ho Kwak (0-1).

Johns is rated at 1295 — 530 points above Kwak's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kwak throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kwak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kwak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brett Johns over Kwan Ho Kwak. We're leaning Johns here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Johns at 66% implied while our model sees 75% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Abdul Razak Alhassan (6-6) taking on Charlie Ward (0-1).

Alhassan is rated at 973 — 184 points above Ward's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ward throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ward is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ward has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan over Charlie Ward. The model is firm on this one: Alhassan at 79%. Notably, the betting market has Alhassan at 74% implied while our model sees 79% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.