UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Saturday, November 12, 2016·New York City, New York, USA
Model Record: 8/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Lightweight✓
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R2)
McGregor 61%39% Alvarez
LEANMarket: 56% (+4.4% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +259(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.1(favors Alvarez)
Welterweight
Woodley 42%58% Thompson
LEANMarket: 36% (+6.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +92(favors Woodley)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Woodley)
Women's Strawweight✓
Joanna Jedrzejczyk won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Jedrzejczyk 87%13% Kowalkiewicz
STRONGMarket: 79% (+7.8% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +140(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Jedrzejczyk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Jedrzejczyk)
Middleweight✓
Yoel Romero won by KO/TKO (R3)
Romero 54%46% Weidman
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+15.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -34(favors Weidman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Weidman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Weidman)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Raquel Pennington won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pennington 63%37% Tate
LEANMarket: 38% (+24.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +19(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Pennington)
Featherweight✓
Frankie Edgar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edgar 72%28% Stephens
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-2.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +198(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Edgar)
Lightweight✓
Khabib Nurmagomedov won by Submission (R3)
Nurmagomedov 86%14% Johnson
STRONGMarket: 73% (+13.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +22(favors Nurmagomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +8.4(favors Nurmagomedov)
Middleweight✗
Tim Boetsch won by KO/TKO (R1)
Boetsch 50%50% Natal
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+9.0% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -69(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Natal)
Welterweight✓
Vicente Luque won by KO/TKO (R1)
Luque 62%38% Muhammad
LEANMarket: 51% (+10.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Luque)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Muhammad)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Muhammad)
Catch Weight✓
Jim Miller won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Miller 56%44% Alves
LEANMarket: 41% (+15.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -18(favors Alves)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Alves)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Miller)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Liz Carmouche won by Decision - Split (R3)
Carmouche 42%58% Cerminara
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -127(favors Cerminara)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Cerminara)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Carmouche)