UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 436 points above Johnson's 1245. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Poirier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Michael Johnson.** The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Uriah Hall (10-8).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Brunson at 1402, Hall at 1378. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hall is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brunson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Hall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Uriah Hall.** The model gives Brunson a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Evan Dunham (11-8-1) taking on Ricky Glenn (4-5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dunham at 1019 versus Glenn at 886. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Glenn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Evan Dunham over Ricky Glenn.** The model gives Dunham a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Roan Carneiro (4-4) taking on Kenny Robertson (4-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Carneiro at 1115, Robertson at 1097. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Carneiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Robertson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Roan Carneiro over Kenny Robertson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carneiro at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Carneiro at 48% implied while our model sees 52% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Chris Wade (4-2).

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 1077 points above Wade's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makhachev throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Makhachev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Chris Wade.** We're leaning Makhachev here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Makhachev at 54% implied while our model sees 71% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (7-3) taking on Maximo Blanco (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Skelly.

Skelly is rated at 1251 — 238 points above Blanco's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Skelly is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Skelly the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanco throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Blanco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maximo Blanco over Chas Skelly.** We're leaning Blanco here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 63% for Skelly, but our model sees only 33%. That 31-point gap favoring Blanco is worth watching.

The Featherweight matchup features Gabriel Benitez (7-7) taking on Sam Sicilia (5-6). Benitez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Benitez at 856, Sicilia at 827. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Benitez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sicilia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sicilia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benitez throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gabriel Benitez over Sam Sicilia.** The model gives Benitez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Benitez at 45% implied while our model sees 56% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Belal Muhammad (15-4) taking on Augusto Montano (1-1).

Muhammad is rated at 1747 — 860 points above Montano's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Muhammad throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Muhammad is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Belal Muhammad over Augusto Montano.** The model is firm on this one: Muhammad at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Muhammad at 80% implied while our model sees 83% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Antonio Carlos Junior (7-4) taking on Leonardo Guimaraes (0-1).

Junior is rated at 1144 — 339 points above Guimaraes's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guimaraes throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Junior is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Junior has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Antonio Carlos Junior over Leonardo Guimaraes.** The model is firm on this one: Junior at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Junior at 70% implied while our model sees 80% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Quinonez (5-3) taking on Joey Gomez (0-1). Gomez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Quinonez at 882, Gomez at 866. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinonez throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinonez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Quinonez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Quinonez over Joey Gomez.** The model gives Quinonez a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Quinonez at 42% implied while our model sees 57% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Erick Montano (1-1). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 573 points above Montano's 808. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Montano throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Montano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Montano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Brown over Erick Montano.** The model is firm on this one: Brown at 84%. Notably, the betting market has Brown at 79% implied while our model sees 84% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Alejandro Perez (8-3-1) taking on Albert Morales (1-3-1). Morales is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Perez is rated at 1082 — 277 points above Morales's 804. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perez's all-rounder game against Morales's striker approach. Perez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Morales brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Albert Morales over Alejandro Perez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morales at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 52% for Perez, but our model sees only 45%. That 7-point gap favoring Morales is worth watching.