UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Carlos Condit (9-9). Condit will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 206 points above Condit's 1165. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Maia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Condit is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Condit throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Maia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Carlos Condit. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Maia at 47% implied while our model sees 61% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Anthony Pettis (10-9) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11).

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 334 points above Pettis's 1512. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Pettis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Pettis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Pettis over Charles Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pettis at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 65% for Pettis, but our model sees only 52%. That 13-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Paige VanZant (5-3) taking on Bec Rawlings (2-4).

VanZant is rated at 1038 — 251 points above Rawlings's 787. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. VanZant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rawlings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paige VanZant over Bec Rawlings. The model gives VanZant a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 66% for VanZant, but our model sees only 61%. That 5-point gap favoring Rawlings is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Joe Lauzon (14-12).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 178 points above Lauzon's 1036. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lauzon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Joe Lauzon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Miller at 44% implied while our model sees 53% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Kevin Casey (1-2-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Alvey.

Casey is rated at 895 — 160 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Casey throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Casey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Alvey over Kevin Casey. The model is firm on this one: Alvey at 75%. Notably, the betting market has Alvey at 69% implied while our model sees 75% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Kyle Bochniak (2-4) taking on Enrique Barzola (6-3).

Barzola is rated at 1071 — 208 points above Bochniak's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Bochniak's striker game against Barzola's wrestler approach. Bochniak brings a versatile approach, while Barzola looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bochniak throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Barzola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Barzola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Enrique Barzola over Kyle Bochniak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barzola at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 60% for Bochniak, but our model sees only 45%. That 15-point gap favoring Barzola is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Alessio Di Chirico (4-6) taking on Garreth McLellan (1-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Chirico at 788, McLellan at 811. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chirico throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Chirico is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Chirico has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessio Di Chirico over Garreth McLellan. The model is firm on this one: Chirico at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Chirico at 72% implied while our model sees 80% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Felipe Silva (1-1) taking on Shane Campbell (1-3). Silva will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 882 versus Campbell at 789. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campbell throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Campbell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Felipe Silva over Shane Campbell. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Silva at 41% implied while our model sees 53% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Chad Laprise (6-3) taking on Thibault Gouti (1-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Laprise at 927 versus Gouti at 831. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Laprise's striker game against Gouti's all-rounder approach. Laprise brings a versatile approach, while Gouti is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Laprise throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Laprise is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Laprise has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Laprise over Thibault Gouti. The model is firm on this one: Laprise at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Laprise at 74% implied while our model sees 78% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jeremy Kennedy (3-0) taking on Alex Ricci (0-1).

Kennedy is rated at 1090 — 227 points above Ricci's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Kennedy rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ricci throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ricci has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jeremy Kennedy over Alex Ricci. The model gives Kennedy a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Kennedy at 58% implied while our model sees 64% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.