UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight championship matchup features Justin Gaethje (9-5) taking on Paddy Pimblett (7-0). Pimblett will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gaethje is rated at 1847 — 279 points above Pimblett's 1568. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett has won 7 straight.

Stylistically this is Gaethje's striker game against Pimblett's wrestler approach. Gaethje brings a versatile approach, while Pimblett looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaethje throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Pimblett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Gaethje has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paddy Pimblett over Justin Gaethje.** We're leaning Pimblett here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Song Yadong (11-3-1). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 200 points above Yadong's 1548. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is O'Malley's striker game against Yadong's all-rounder approach. O'Malley brings a versatile approach, while Yadong is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Yadong is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Sean O'Malley.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yadong at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Waldo Cortes Acosta (9-2) taking on Derrick Lewis (20-10).

Acosta is rated at 1637 — 271 points above Lewis's 1366. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lewis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Waldo Cortes Acosta over Derrick Lewis.** The model gives Acosta a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (7-0) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-6).

Silva is rated at 1618 — 196 points above Namajunas's 1421. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Namajunas's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Natalia Silva over Rose Namajunas.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Jean Silva (5-1) taking on Arnold Allen (11-2).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1537 to 1468), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Allen's all-rounder approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Allen is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jean Silva over Arnold Allen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-5-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Nurmagomedov.

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1701 — 211 points above Figueiredo's 1490. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Nurmagomedov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Figueiredo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nurmagomedov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Deiveson Figueiredo.** The model is firm on this one: Nurmagomedov at 77%.

The Middleweight matchup features Ateba Gautier (3-0) taking on Andrey Pulyaev (1-1). Gautier will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gautier is rated at 1266 — 257 points above Pulyaev's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gautier rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gautier throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gautier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Gautier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ateba Gautier over Andrey Pulyaev.** We're leaning Gautier here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Modestas Bukauskas (7-4).

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 233 points above Bukauskas's 1168. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bukauskas has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Krylov is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Bukauskas is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Bukauskas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Krylov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Bukauskas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Modestas Bukauskas.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krylov at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Alex Perez (7-6) taking on Charles Johnson (7-5). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Perez is rated at 1293 — 196 points above Johnson's 1097. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Perez's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Perez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charles Johnson over Alex Perez.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Hokit (1-0) taking on Denzel Freeman (1-0). Freeman will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hokit is rated at 1240 — 267 points above Freeman's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hokit throws significantly more leather — a 6.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Freeman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Freeman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Hokit over Denzel Freeman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hokit at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Ty Miller (0-0) taking on Adam Fugitt (2-3).

Miller is rated at 1093 — 282 points above Fugitt's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fugitt throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Fugitt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ty Miller over Adam Fugitt.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Miller at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.