UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Wednesday, July 13, 2016·Sioux Falls, South Dakota, USA·12 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✗✗✗✗✓✓✓✓✗✗
Main Card
BantamweightHIT
John Lineker won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lineker 67%33% McDonald
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
CONFIDENTMarket: 60% (+6.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +133(favors Lineker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.6(favors Lineker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Lineker)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R2)
Ferguson 84%16% Vannata
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
STRONGMarket: 86% (-2.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +692(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.0(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Ferguson)
MiddleweightMISS
Tim Boetsch won by KO/TKO (R2)
Boetsch 38%62% Samman
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
LEANMarket: 33% (+4.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -87(favors Samman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Samman)
HeavyweightMISS
Daniel Omielanczuk won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Omielanczuk 40%60% Oleinik
Over/UnderUnder 65%
Under 65%Over 35%
LEANMarket: 36% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -289(favors Oleinik)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Oleinik)
WelterweightMISS
Keita Nakamura won by Submission (R2)
Nakamura 48%52% Noke
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+8.6% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -113(favors Noke)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Noke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Nakamura)
FlyweightMISS
Louis Smolka won by KO/TKO (R2)
Smolka 48%52% Nguyen
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 46% (+2.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +96(favors Smolka)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Nguyen)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Smolka)
Prelims
Women's BantamweightHIT
Katlyn Cerminara won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerminara 53%47% Murphy
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Murphy)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.2(favors Murphy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Murphy)
MiddleweightHIT
Sam Alvey won by Submission (R1)
Alvey 70%30% Spicely
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (-1.2% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +222(favors Alvey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Alvey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Spicely)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Cortney Casey won by KO/TKO (R1)
Casey 55%45% Stanciu
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UPMarket: 41% (+13.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -174(favors Stanciu)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Stanciu)
LightweightHIT
Scott Holtzman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holtzman 71%29% Pfister
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 72% (-1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -1(favors Pfister)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Holtzman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Pfister)
BantamweightMISS
Rani Yahya won by Submission (R3)
Yahya 40%60% Lopez
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEANMarket: 40% (-0.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +186(favors Yahya)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Yahya)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Yahya)
MiddleweightMISS
Alex Nicholson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Nicholson 35%65% Clark
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEANMarket: 33% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -83(favors Clark)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Nicholson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Clark)