UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Rory MacDonald (9-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: MacDonald at 1465 versus Thompson at 1329. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Thompson's striker game against MacDonald's all-rounder approach. Thompson brings a versatile approach, while MacDonald is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Thompson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Rory MacDonald.** The model gives Thompson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Thompson at 48% implied while our model sees 58% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10).

Cote is rated at 1221 — 167 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cote is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Cote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Patrick Cote.** We're leaning Cerrone here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Cerrone at 58% implied while our model sees 65% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Steve Bosse (1-1) taking on Sean O'Connell (2-4). O'Connell is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Bosse is rated at 1141 — 238 points above O'Connell's 903. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Connell throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Connell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bosse has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Steve Bosse over Sean O'Connell.** The model gives Bosse a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-4) taking on Thibault Gouti (1-4).

Aubin-Mercier is rated at 1070 — 239 points above Gouti's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Aubin-Mercier looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gouti is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Aubin-Mercier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aubin-Mercier throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Aubin-Mercier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Aubin-Mercier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Olivier Aubin-Mercier over Thibault Gouti.** The model is firm on this one: Aubin-Mercier at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Aubin-Mercier at 77% implied while our model sees 90% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Valerie Letourneau (3-2). Letourneau will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Wood is rated at 1101 — 183 points above Letourneau's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Letourneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Valerie Letourneau over Joanne Wood.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Letourneau at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Wood at 40% implied while our model sees 49% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Jason Saggo (3-2) taking on Leandro Silva (3-3).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1049 to 1013), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Saggo's striker game against Silva's wrestler approach. Saggo brings a versatile approach, while Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saggo throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Saggo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jason Saggo over Leandro Silva.** The model gives Saggo a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Saggo at 53% implied while our model sees 57% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Misha Cirkunov (6-6) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1). Cirkunov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 279 points above Cirkunov's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cirkunov throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cirkunov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 8.0 more per 15 minutes. Cutelaba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Misha Cirkunov over Ion Cutelaba.** We're leaning Cirkunov here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Cirkunov at 65% implied while our model sees 73% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Krzysztof Jotko (11-5) taking on Tamdan McCrory (4-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring McCrory.

Jotko is rated at 1222 — 246 points above McCrory's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jotko's striker game against McCrory's wrestler approach. Jotko brings a versatile approach, while McCrory looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jotko throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Jotko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Krzysztof Jotko over Tamdan McCrory.** The model gives Jotko a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Jotko at 36% implied while our model sees 56% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Joe Soto (3-4) taking on Chris Beal (2-2). Beal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Soto is rated at 963 — 152 points above Beal's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Soto throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Beal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Beal over Joe Soto.** The model gives Beal a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 52% for Soto, but our model sees only 43%. That 9-point gap favoring Beal is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Elias Theodorou (8-2) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1).

Theodorou is rated at 1270 — 535 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Theodorou rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Theodorou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Theodorou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Elias Theodorou over Sam Alvey.** The model is firm on this one: Theodorou at 80%. Notably, the betting market has Theodorou at 69% implied while our model sees 80% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Randa Markos (6-10-1) taking on Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jones-Lybarger.

Markos is rated at 974 — 226 points above Jones-Lybarger's 748. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randa Markos over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Markos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Jonathan Meunier (0-1).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 608 points above Meunier's 1023. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Meunier has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Colby Covington over Jonathan Meunier.** The model is firm on this one: Covington at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Covington at 69% implied while our model sees 83% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ali Bagautinov (4-2) taking on Geane Herrera (1-2).

Bagautinov is rated at 1188 — 216 points above Herrera's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bagautinov throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bagautinov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Herrera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ali Bagautinov over Geane Herrera.** We're leaning Bagautinov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Bagautinov at 70% implied while our model sees 74% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.