UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Thomas Almeida (5-4). Almeida will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garbrandt is rated at 1155 — 204 points above Almeida's 951. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Garbrandt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Thomas Almeida.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garbrandt at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Garbrandt at 38% implied while our model sees 53% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeremy Stephens (15-18) taking on Renan Barao (9-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Stephens.

There's a real Elo separation here: Stephens at 941 versus Barao at 821. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Stephens's striker game against Barao's all-rounder approach. Stephens brings a versatile approach, while Barao is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barao throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Stephens is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Renan Barao.** The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Stephens at 40% implied while our model sees 58% — a 18-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Rick Story (12-6) taking on Tarec Saffiedine (2-3).

Story is rated at 1358 — 242 points above Saffiedine's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Story rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Story throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Story is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Saffiedine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rick Story over Tarec Saffiedine.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Story at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on Vitor Miranda (3-3).

Camozzi carries a modest Elo edge (986 to 933), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Camozzi's all-rounder game against Miranda's striker approach. Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Miranda brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Camozzi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Miranda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Vitor Miranda.** The model gives Camozzi a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Camozzi at 46% implied while our model sees 63% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Lorenz Larkin (4-5) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9).

Masvidal carries a modest Elo edge (1579 to 1501), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Larkin's striker game against Masvidal's all-rounder approach. Larkin brings a versatile approach, while Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Larkin throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Lorenz Larkin.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Masvidal at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Paul Felder (9-5) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11).

Felder is rated at 1363 — 619 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Felder throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Felder has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Paul Felder over Joshua Burkman.** The model gives Felder a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Sara McMann (6-6) taking on Jessica Eye (5-9).

McMann is rated at 1158 — 208 points above Eye's 950. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Eye throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Eye has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Eye over Sara McMann.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Eye at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 56% for McMann, but our model sees only 46%. That 10-point gap favoring Eye is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-3) taking on Jordan Rinaldi (2-2). Rinaldi is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rinaldi carries a modest Elo edge (1071 to 1031), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Trujillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Rinaldi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abel Trujillo over Jordan Rinaldi.** We're leaning Trujillo here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 73% for Trujillo, but our model sees only 68%. That 5-point gap favoring Rinaldi is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Jake Collier (5-8) taking on Alberto Uda (0-1).

Collier carries a modest Elo edge (794 to 755), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Collier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Uda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Collier over Alberto Uda.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Collier at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Erik Koch (4-5) taking on Shane Campbell (1-3).

Koch is rated at 1017 — 228 points above Campbell's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campbell throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Campbell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Campbell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shane Campbell over Erik Koch.** The model gives Campbell a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Bryan Caraway (6-3) taking on Aljamain Sterling (16-5). Sterling will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sterling is rated at 1683 — 492 points above Caraway's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sterling throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sterling is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Sterling has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aljamain Sterling over Bryan Caraway.** We're leaning Sterling here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Caraway at 25% implied while our model sees 31% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Adam Milstead (1-1) taking on Chris de la Rocha (1-2). Rocha will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Milstead carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 800), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rocha throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rocha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Milstead has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Adam Milstead over Chris de la Rocha.** The model is firm on this one: Milstead at 81%. Notably, the betting market has Milstead at 70% implied while our model sees 81% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.