UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Saturday, April 23, 2016·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Jon Jones won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Jones 78%22% Preux
STRONG
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +600(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Jones)
Flyweight✓
Demetrious Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 84%16% Cejudo
STRONGMarket: 78% (+6.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +326(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Johnson)
Lightweight✓
Edson Barboza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barboza 55%45% Pettis
LEANMarket: 39% (+16.1% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -129(favors Pettis)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Barboza)
Middleweight✓
Robert Whittaker won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Whittaker 80%20% Natal
STRONGMarket: 74% (+6.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +196(favors Whittaker)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Whittaker)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Natal)
Featherweight✓
Yair Rodriguez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Rodriguez 51%49% Fili
TOSS-UPMarket: 54% (-2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +62(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Fili)
Flyweight✓
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 75%25% Kelades
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+8.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -38(favors Kelades)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Pettis)
Welterweight✓
Danny Roberts won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Roberts 85%15% Steele
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +42(favors Roberts)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Steele)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.4(favors Steele)
Women's Strawweight✓
Carla Esparza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Esparza 56%44% Lima
LEANMarket: 64% (-7.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -102(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Esparza)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Esparza)
Lightweight✗
James Vick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vick 35%65% Moreira
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +222(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Moreira)
Heavyweight✗
Walt Harris won by KO/TKO (R1)
Harris 33%67% East
CONFIDENTMarket: 38% (-5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -265(favors East)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Harris)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors East)
Light Heavyweight✗
Marcos Rogerio de Lima won by Submission (R1)
Lima 27%73% Hester
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (-27.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +60(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Hester)
Lightweight✓
Kevin Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 90%10% Escudero
STRONGMarket: 78% (+12.5% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +125(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Lee)