UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
Sunday, April 10, 2016·Zagreb, Croatia·13 fights
Model: 12/13(92%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Junior Dos Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Santos 51%49% Rothwell
Over/UnderOver 65%
Under 35%Over 65%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -40(favors Rothwell)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Rothwell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Santos)
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lewis 60%40% Gonzaga
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
LEANMarket: 58% (+1.6% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +99(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Gonzaga)
HeavyweightHIT
Francis Ngannou won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ngannou 60%40% Blaydes
Over/UnderUnder 62%
Under 62%Over 38%
LEANMarket: 41% (+18.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +191(favors Ngannou)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.2(favors Ngannou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Blaydes)
HeavyweightMISS
Timothy Johnson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Johnson 48%52% Tybura
Over/UnderUnder 56%
Under 56%Over 44%
TOSS-UPMarket: 43% (+4.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +60(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Johnson)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jan Blachowicz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Blachowicz 76%24% Pokrajac
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
STRONGMarket: 75% (+0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +181(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Blachowicz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Blachowicz)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Maryna Moroz won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Moroz 54%46% Stanciu
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-8.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +67(favors Moroz)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Moroz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Stanciu)
Prelims
WelterweightHIT
Zak Cummings won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummings 52%48% Dalby
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 48% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +173(favors Cummings)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Dalby)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Dalby)
BantamweightHIT
Alejandro Perez won by KO/TKO (R1)
Perez 86%14% Entwistle
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 42% (+43.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -31(favors Entwistle)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Perez)
LightweightHIT
Mairbek Taisumov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Taisumov 76%24% Hadzovic
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+0.3% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +428(favors Taisumov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Taisumov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Taisumov)
BantamweightHIT
Damian Stasiak won by Submission (R1)
Stasiak 52%48% Pejic
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-1.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -184(favors Pejic)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Stasiak)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Stasiak)
FeatherweightHIT
Lucas Martins won by Decision - Split (R3)
Martins 56%44% Whiteford
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
LEANMarket: 53% (+2.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +54(favors Martins)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Martins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Whiteford)
HeavyweightHIT
Jared Cannonier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Cannonier 56%44% Asker
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
LEANMarket: 59% (-3.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -124(favors Asker)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.4(favors Cannonier)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Asker)
MiddleweightHIT
Bojan Velickovic won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Velickovic 60%40% Chirico
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEANMarket: 64% (-3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Chirico)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Chirico)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Chirico)