UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Alex Oliveira (11-9). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Cerrone at 1054 versus Oliveira at 934. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Cerrone has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Alex Oliveira.** We're leaning Cerrone here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 71% for Cerrone, but our model sees only 66%. That 4-point gap favoring Oliveira is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Roan Carneiro (4-4).

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 287 points above Carneiro's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brunson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Carneiro looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Carneiro the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Carneiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Carneiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Roan Carneiro.** The model is firm on this one: Brunson at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 77% implied while our model sees 88% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Catch Weight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Augusto Mendes (1-1).

Garbrandt is rated at 1155 — 167 points above Mendes's 988. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garbrandt throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Garbrandt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Augusto Mendes.** The model is firm on this one: Garbrandt at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Garbrandt at 77% implied while our model sees 92% — a 15-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Bermudez (9-7) taking on Tatsuya Kawajiri (3-2). Kawajiri will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bermudez at 1068, Kawajiri at 1092. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Bermudez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kawajiri looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Kawajiri the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bermudez throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bermudez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Bermudez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dennis Bermudez over Tatsuya Kawajiri.** The model is firm on this one: Bermudez at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Bermudez at 77% implied while our model sees 87% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on Joe Riggs (5-6). Camozzi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Camozzi at 986 versus Riggs at 842. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Riggs is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Riggs the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Camozzi throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Camozzi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Joe Riggs.** The model is firm on this one: Camozzi at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Camozzi at 69% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features James Krause (8-4) taking on Shane Campbell (1-3). Krause is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Krause is rated at 1436 — 647 points above Campbell's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Campbell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Krause has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: James Krause over Shane Campbell.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Krause at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 58% for Krause, but our model sees only 51%. That 7-point gap favoring Campbell is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Strickland (16-7) taking on Alex Garcia (5-4). Strickland is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 807 points above Garcia's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Garcia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Alex Garcia.** The model gives Strickland a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Strickland at 48% implied while our model sees 59% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Oluwale Bamgbose (1-3) taking on Daniel Sarafian (2-3). Bamgbose is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sarafian at 888 versus Bamgbose at 776. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bamgbose throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sarafian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sarafian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Sarafian over Oluwale Bamgbose.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sarafian at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Bamgbose at 38% implied while our model sees 50% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Smith (13-11) taking on Leonardo Guimaraes (0-1).

Smith is rated at 1070 — 265 points above Guimaraes's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Guimaraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Guimaraes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Smith over Leonardo Guimaraes.** The model gives Smith a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Smith at 55% implied while our model sees 59% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Nathan Coy (1-1) taking on Jonavin Webb (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Coy at 950 versus Webb at 844. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coy throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Coy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Coy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jonavin Webb over Nathan Coy.** We're leaning Webb here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 30% for Coy, but our model sees only 26%. That 4-point gap favoring Webb is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-5) taking on Marion Reneau (5-6-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Reneau at 878 versus Evans-Smith at 758. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Evans-Smith's striker game against Reneau's all-rounder approach. Evans-Smith brings a versatile approach, while Reneau is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reneau throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans-Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marion Reneau over Ashlee Evans-Smith.** The model gives Reneau a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Evans-Smith at 38% implied while our model sees 44% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Lauren Murphy (8-6) taking on Kelly Faszholz (0-1).

Murphy is rated at 1171 — 391 points above Faszholz's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Murphy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Faszholz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Lauren Murphy over Kelly Faszholz.** The model is firm on this one: Murphy at 78%. Notably, the betting market has Murphy at 75% implied while our model sees 78% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5) taking on Anthony Hamilton (3-6).

Abdurakhimov is rated at 1018 — 297 points above Hamilton's 722. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Shamil Abdurakhimov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hamilton at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Abdurakhimov, but our model sees only 48%. That 3-point gap favoring Hamilton is worth watching.