UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Saturday, January 30, 2016·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Anthony Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 75%25% Bader
STRONGMarket: 70% (+4.9% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -31(favors Bader)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Bader)
Heavyweight✗
Ben Rothwell won by Submission (R2)
Rothwell 48%52% Barnett
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+3.9% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Submission Artist — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +46(favors Rothwell)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Barnett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Barnett)
Bantamweight✓
Jimmie Rivera won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rivera 57%43% Alcantara
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors Alcantara)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Alcantara)
Welterweight✗
Bryan Barberena won by Submission (R2)
Barberena 33%67% Northcutt
CONFIDENTMarket: 29% (+3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -129(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -6.3(favors Northcutt)
Welterweight✓
Tarec Saffiedine won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Saffiedine 58%42% Ellenberger
LEANMarket: 69% (-11.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -44(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Saffiedine)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Ellenberger)
Lightweight✗
Diego Ferreira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ferreira 40%60% Aubin-Mercier
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -169(favors Aubin-Mercier)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ferreira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Aubin-Mercier)
Middleweight✓
Rafael Natal won by KO/TKO (R3)
Natal 56%44% Casey
LEANMarket: 61% (-5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +236(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Natal)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Natal)
Flyweight✗
Wilson Reis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Reis 37%63% Ortiz
LEANMarket: 32% (+4.5% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -136(favors Ortiz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Ortiz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Reis)
Welterweight✗
Alexander Yakovlev won by KO/TKO (R1)
Yakovlev 46%54% Sullivan
TOSS-UPMarket: 53% (-6.2% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -119(favors Sullivan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Sullivan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Sullivan)
Featherweight✓
Alex Caceres won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Caceres 71%29% Fullen
CONFIDENTMarket: 70% (+0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -26(favors Fullen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Caceres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Fullen)
Welterweight✓
Randy Brown won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brown 56%44% Dwyer
LEANMarket: 54% (+1.7% edge)
→Elo gap: +19(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.2(favors Dwyer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Dwyer)
Featherweight
Jackson 28%72% Makashvili
CONFIDENTMarket: 27% (+1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -151(favors Makashvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Jackson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Makashvili)
Lightweight✓
Anthony Rocco Martin won by Submission (R3)
Martin 66%34% Olivieri
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -76(favors Olivieri)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Martin)