The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale
Friday, December 11, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✓
Frankie Edgar won by KO/TKO (R1)
Edgar 61%39% Mendes
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +234(favors Edgar)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Edgar)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Mendes)
Lightweight✗
Ryan Hall won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hall 45%55% Lobov
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Lobov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lobov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lobov)
Lightweight✓
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R2)
Ferguson 67%33% Barboza
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +126(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Ferguson)
Lightweight✗
Evan Dunham won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dunham 49%51% Lauzon
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -89(favors Lauzon)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Dunham)
Featherweight✗
Tatsuya Kawajiri won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kawajiri 48%52% Knight
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +181(favors Kawajiri)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Kawajiri)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Kawajiri)
Lightweight✓
Julian Erosa won by Decision - Split (R3)
Erosa 55%45% Wrzosek
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Wrzosek)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Wrzosek)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Wrzosek)
Heavyweight✓
Gabriel Gonzaga won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gonzaga 65%35% Erokhin
LEAN
→Elo gap: +68(favors Gonzaga)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Gonzaga)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Gonzaga)
Welterweight✓
Ryan LaFlare won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
LaFlare 72%28% Pierce
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Pierce)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors LaFlare)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Pierce)
Flyweight✓
Geane Herrera won by KO/TKO (R2)
Herrera 56%44% Sanchez
LEAN
→Elo gap: -37(favors Sanchez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Sanchez)
Lightweight✓
Chris Gruetzemacher won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gruetzemacher 53%47% Lloveras
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Lloveras)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Lloveras)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lloveras)