UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Thursday, December 10, 2015·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/11(73%)
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Main Card
Women's StrawweightMISS
Rose Namajunas won by Submission (R5)
Namajunas 38%62% VanZant
Over/UnderOver 68%
Under 32%Over 68%
LEANMarket: 42% (-4.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -281(favors VanZant)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors VanZant)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors VanZant)
LightweightHIT
Michael Chiesa won by Submission (R2)
Chiesa 66%34% Miller
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+11.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -140(favors Miller)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Chiesa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Chiesa)
LightweightHIT
Sage Northcutt won by Submission (R2)
Northcutt 84%16% Pfister
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
STRONGMarket: 87% (-3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +217(favors Northcutt)
→Striking volume advantage: +20.9(favors Northcutt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +12.3(favors Northcutt)
MiddleweightMISS
Thiago Santos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Santos 43%57% Theodorou
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 32% (+11.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -101(favors Theodorou)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Theodorou)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.5(favors Theodorou)
WelterweightHIT
Tim Means won by KO/TKO (R2)
Means 87%13% Howard
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 78% (+8.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +201(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Means)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Howard)
WelterweightMISS
Sergio Moraes won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moraes 48%52% Akhmedov
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 44% (+3.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -133(favors Akhmedov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Akhmedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Akhmedov)
Prelims
Middleweight
Junior 74%26% Casey
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +328(favors Junior)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Casey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Junior)
BantamweightHIT
Aljamain Sterling won by Submission (R2)
Sterling 89%11% Eduardo
Over/UnderUnder 54%
Under 54%Over 46%
STRONGMarket: 83% (+5.8% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +156(favors Sterling)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Sterling)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Sterling)
WelterweightHIT
Santiago Ponzinibbio won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ponzinibbio 68%32% Stahl
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +178(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Ponzinibbio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Ponzinibbio)
WelterweightHIT
Danny Roberts won by Submission (R1)
Roberts 69%31% Coy
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 58% (+10.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Coy)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Coy)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Coy)
FeatherweightHIT
Zubaira Tukhugov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tukhugov 76%24% Nover
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
STRONGMarket: 74% (+1.8% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +483(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Tukhugov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Tukhugov)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Kailin Curran won by Submission (R2)
Curran 86%14% Kagan
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
STRONGMarket: 75% (+11.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -217(favors Kagan)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Curran)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Curran)