UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Saturday, November 21, 2015·Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico
Model Record: 7/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✗
Neil Magny won by Decision - Split (R5)
Magny 45%55% Gastelum
LEANMarket: 26% (+18.7% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Magny)
Featherweight✓
Ricardo Lamas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lamas 87%13% Sanchez
STRONGMarket: 81% (+6.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +103(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Lamas)
Flyweight✓
Henry Cejudo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cejudo 86%14% Formiga
STRONGMarket: 82% (+3.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -26(favors Formiga)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Formiga)
Welterweight✗
Erick Montano won by Decision - Split (R3)
Montano 42%58% Marin
LEANMarket: 36% (+6.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Marin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Marin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Marin)
Lightweight✗
Enrique Barzola won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barzola 45%55% Gutierrez
LEANMarket: 37% (+7.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Gutierrez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gutierrez)
Lightweight✓
Leandro Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 63%37% Escudero
LEANMarket: 58% (+4.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -33(favors Escudero)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Escudero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Silva)
Bantamweight✗
Erik Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 35%65% Lapilus
CONFIDENTMarket: 53% (-18.7% edge)
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Lapilus)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Lapilus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Perez)
Welterweight✓
Bartosz Fabinski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fabinski 78%22% Urbina
STRONGMarket: 64% (+14.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +24(favors Fabinski)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Fabinski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +10.0(favors Fabinski)
Bantamweight✓
Alejandro Perez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Perez 57%43% Jorgensen
LEANMarket: 45% (+11.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +80(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Jorgensen)
Featherweight✓
Andre Fili won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fili 55%45% Benitez
TOSS-UPMarket: 66% (-11.4% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -208(favors Benitez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Fili)
Welterweight✗
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mendoza 46%54% Ho
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ho)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ho)
Lightweight✗
Marco Polo Reyes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Reyes 34%66% Arzamendia
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (-3.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Arzamendia)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Arzamendia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Arzamendia)
Lightweight✓
Michel Prazeres won by Decision - Split (R3)
Prazeres 67%33% Lazaro
CONFIDENTMarket: 55% (+12.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -26(favors Lazaro)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Lazaro)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Prazeres)