UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum
Saturday, November 21, 2015·Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico·13 fights
Model: 8/13(62%)
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Main Card
WelterweightMISS
Neil Magny won by Decision - Split (R5)
Magny 48%52% Gastelum
Over/UnderOver 73%
Under 27%Over 73%
TOSS-UPMarket: 26% (+22.0% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -168(favors Gastelum)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.4(favors Magny)
FeatherweightHIT
Ricardo Lamas won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lamas 85%15% Sanchez
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
STRONGMarket: 81% (+3.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +112(favors Lamas)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Sanchez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Lamas)
FlyweightHIT
Henry Cejudo won by Decision - Split (R3)
Cejudo 87%13% Formiga
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
STRONGMarket: 82% (+5.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Cejudo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Formiga)
WelterweightHIT
Erick Montano won by Decision - Split (R3)
Montano 53%47% Marin
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+17.2% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Marin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Marin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Marin)
LightweightHIT
Enrique Barzola won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barzola 52%48% Gutierrez
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+14.7% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gutierrez)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Gutierrez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gutierrez)
LightweightHIT
Leandro Silva won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Silva 60%40% Escudero
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEANMarket: 58% (+1.4% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +7(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Escudero)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Silva)
Prelims
BantamweightMISS
Erik Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 41%59% Lapilus
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 53% (-12.8% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -62(favors Lapilus)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Lapilus)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.4(favors Perez)
WelterweightHIT
Bartosz Fabinski won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Fabinski 85%15% Urbina
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 64% (+21.3% edge)
→Elo gap: +67(favors Fabinski)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.6(favors Fabinski)
→Takedown rate advantage: +10.0(favors Fabinski)
BantamweightMISS
Alejandro Perez won by KO/TKO (R2)
Perez 50%50% Jorgensen
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 45% (+4.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Perez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Jorgensen)
FeatherweightHIT
Andre Fili won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fili 55%45% Benitez
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEANMarket: 66% (-10.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -346(favors Benitez)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Fili)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Fili)
WelterweightMISS
Alvaro Herrera Mendoza won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mendoza 45%55% Ho
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Ho)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Ho)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ho)
LightweightMISS
Marco Polo Reyes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Reyes 35%65% Arzamendia
Over/UnderOver 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
LEANMarket: 37% (-1.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Arzamendia)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Arzamendia)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Arzamendia)
LightweightHIT
Michel Prazeres won by Decision - Split (R3)
Prazeres 60%40% Lazaro
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 55% (+5.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -43(favors Lazaro)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.0(favors Lazaro)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Prazeres)