UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-10) taking on Dan Henderson (9-9).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Belfort at 1440, Henderson at 1468. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Belfort is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Henderson brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Belfort the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Belfort has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Dan Henderson. The model is firm on this one: Belfort at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on Patrick Cummins (6-7).

Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 645 points above Cummins's 1032. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Cummins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Cummins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glover Teixeira over Patrick Cummins. The model is firm on this one: Teixeira at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Teixeira at 80% implied while our model sees 85% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Thomas Almeida (5-5) taking on Anthony Birchak (2-4).

Almeida is rated at 1037 — 200 points above Birchak's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Birchak throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Birchak is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Birchak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Almeida over Anthony Birchak. The model is firm on this one: Almeida at 81%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Alex Oliveira (11-10) taking on Piotr Hallmann (2-4). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1099 — 161 points above Hallmann's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hallmann looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Hallmann the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hallmann throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hallmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira over Piotr Hallmann. We're leaning Oliveira here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Rashid Magomedov (5-1) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-9).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Magomedov at 1525, Burns at 1542. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magomedov throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashid Magomedov over Gilbert Burns. The model gives Magomedov a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Corey Anderson (10-5) taking on Fabio Maldonado (5-6). Anderson is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Anderson is rated at 1502 — 408 points above Maldonado's 1095. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Anderson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Anderson brings a versatile approach, while Maldonado is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Maldonado the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anderson throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Anderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Corey Anderson over Fabio Maldonado. The model is firm on this one: Anderson at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Anderson at 83% implied while our model sees 90% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Abel Trujillo (6-4) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-12).

Tibau carries a modest Elo edge (1163 to 1107), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Trujillo's striker game against Tibau's wrestler approach. Trujillo brings a versatile approach, while Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trujillo throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Abel Trujillo. The model gives Tibau a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Johnny Case (4-2) taking on Yan Cabral (2-3).

Case is rated at 1113 — 201 points above Cabral's 912. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Case throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Case is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Cabral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Johnny Case over Yan Cabral. We're leaning Case here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Thiago Tavares (10-7-1) taking on Clay Guida (18-19).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tavares at 1202 versus Guida at 1054. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tavares throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Tavares over Clay Guida. The model gives Tavares a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Tavares at 41% implied while our model sees 58% — a 17-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Chas Skelly (8-3) taking on Edimilson Souza (3-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Skelly at 1303 versus Souza at 1209. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Souza has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Souza throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Skelly is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Skelly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edimilson Souza over Chas Skelly. The model gives Souza a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Viscardi Andrade (3-1) taking on Gasan Umalatov (1-3). Andrade will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Andrade is rated at 1203 — 347 points above Umalatov's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Umalatov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gasan Umalatov over Viscardi Andrade. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Umalatov at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jimmie Rivera (7-4) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-10). Rivera will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rivera carries a modest Elo edge (1411 to 1369), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Munhoz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Munhoz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimmie Rivera over Pedro Munhoz. The model gives Rivera a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Rivera at 39% implied while our model sees 63% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Matheus Nicolau (7-4) taking on Bruno Korea (0-1).

Nicolau is rated at 1087 — 252 points above Korea's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Korea throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Korea is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Korea has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Bruno Korea. We're leaning Nicolau here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.