UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
Saturday, October 3, 2015·Houston, Texas, USA
Model Record: 10/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Daniel Cormier won by Decision - Split (R5)
Cormier 72%28% Gustafsson
CONFIDENTMarket: 71% (+1.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +167(favors Cormier)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Gustafsson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Cormier)
Light Heavyweight✓
Ryan Bader won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bader 68%32% Evans
CONFIDENTMarket: 46% (+22.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -154(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Bader)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Bader)
Heavyweight✓
Ruslan Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 54%46% Jordan
TOSS-UPMarket: 63% (-9.0% edge)
→Elo gap: -130(favors Jordan)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.8(favors Jordan)
Flyweight✓
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benavidez 76%24% Bagautinov
STRONGMarket: 75% (+1.5% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +150(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Bagautinov)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Julianna Pena won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pena 79%21% Eye
STRONGMarket: 68% (+11.3% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +183(favors Pena)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Pena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.0(favors Pena)
Featherweight✓
Yair Rodriguez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Rodriguez 55%45% Hooker
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +9(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Hooker)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Rodriguez)
Welterweight✓
Albert Tumenov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tumenov 76%24% Jouban
STRONGMarket: 70% (+5.2% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +35(favors Tumenov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Tumenov)
Lightweight✗
Adriano Martins won by KO/TKO (R1)
Martins 37%63% Makhachev
LEANMarket: 42% (-4.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +164(favors Martins)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Makhachev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.9(favors Makhachev)
Women's Strawweight✓
Rose Namajunas won by Submission (R1)
Namajunas 74%26% Hill
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (+4.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Hill)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Hill)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Namajunas)
Lightweight✓
Sage Northcutt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Northcutt 52%48% Trevino
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -11(favors Trevino)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Trevino)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Trevino)
Flyweight✓
Sergio Pettis won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pettis 78%22% Cariaso
STRONGMarket: 65% (+13.1% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -129(favors Cariaso)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Pettis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.4(favors Pettis)
Heavyweight✗
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R3)
Lewis 39%61% Pesta
LEANMarket: 39% (+0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: -9(favors Pesta)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Pesta)