UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Josh Barnett (6-3) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9). Barnett is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Barnett is rated at 1454 — 325 points above Nelson's 1129. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Barnett's submission artist game against Nelson's striker approach. Barnett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Barnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Barnett over Roy Nelson. The model gives Barnett a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 74% for Barnett, but our model sees only 63%. That 11-point gap favoring Nelson is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Gegard Mousasi (8-3). Hall will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 383 points above Hall's 1378. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Uriah Hall. We're leaning Mousasi here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Chico Camus (3-3). Camus is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 576 points above Camus's 952. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Horiguchi's striker game against Camus's all-rounder approach. Horiguchi brings a versatile approach, while Camus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Horiguchi throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Horiguchi is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Camus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi over Chico Camus. The model is firm on this one: Horiguchi at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Horiguchi at 78% implied while our model sees 88% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Takeya Mizugaki (8-5) taking on George Roop (5-7). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mizugaki at 995 versus Roop at 881. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Roop has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over George Roop. We're leaning Mizugaki here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Mizugaki at 68% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Brandao (6-3) taking on Katsunori Kikuno (2-2).

Brandao is rated at 1131 — 183 points above Kikuno's 948. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kikuno throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Brandao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Kikuno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Brandao over Katsunori Kikuno. We're leaning Brandao here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Brandao at 68% implied while our model sees 75% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Mizuto Hirota (1-4-1) taking on Teruto Ishihara (3-4-1).

Ishihara carries a modest Elo edge (817 to 777), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hirota throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hirota is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Ishihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mizuto Hirota over Teruto Ishihara. The model gives Hirota a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 72% for Hirota, but our model sees only 57%. That 15-point gap favoring Ishihara is worth watching.

The Welterweight matchup features Keita Nakamura (4-6) taking on Li Jingliang (11-6).

Jingliang is rated at 1270 — 284 points above Nakamura's 987. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nakamura's wrestler game against Jingliang's striker approach. Nakamura looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jingliang brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jingliang throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nakamura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Li Jingliang over Keita Nakamura. The model is firm on this one: Jingliang at 79%. The market implies 28% for Nakamura, but our model sees only 21%. That 8-point gap favoring Jingliang is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Nick Hein (4-3) taking on Yusuke Kasuya (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hein at 818, Kasuya at 832. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hein throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kasuya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Hein over Yusuke Kasuya. The model is firm on this one: Hein at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Hein at 76% implied while our model sees 88% — a 12-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Kajan Johnson (4-2) taking on Naoyuki Kotani (0-4). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1168 — 484 points above Kotani's 684. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kajan Johnson over Naoyuki Kotani. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 87%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 73% implied while our model sees 87% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Shinsho Anzai (2-1) taking on Roger Zapata (0-0).

Anzai is rated at 1056 — 228 points above Zapata's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anzai throws significantly more leather — a 7.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Anzai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Zapata has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roger Zapata over Shinsho Anzai. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Zapata at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 51% for Anzai, but our model sees only 47%. That 5-point gap favoring Zapata is worth watching.