UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-6) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-12). Preux will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 679 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Glover Teixeira. We're leaning Preux here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 192 points above Johnson's 1245. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dariush's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Michael Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dariush at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 40% implied while our model sees 53% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Sam Alvey (10-12-1).

Brunson is rated at 1402 — 668 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brunson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derek Brunson over Sam Alvey. The model is firm on this one: Brunson at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 78% implied while our model sees 86% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-1) taking on Timothy Johnson (3-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rosholt at 1186 versus Johnson at 1067. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Timothy Johnson. We're leaning Rosholt here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (15-2) taking on Sara McMann (6-6). Nunes is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 478 points above McMann's 1158. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McMann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sara McMann over Amanda Nunes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McMann at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 30% implied while our model sees 50% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ray Borg (7-4) taking on Geane Herrera (1-2). Herrera will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Borg is rated at 1172 — 200 points above Herrera's 972. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borg throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Herrera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ray Borg over Geane Herrera. The model is firm on this one: Borg at 75%. The market implies 80% for Borg, but our model sees only 75%. That 5-point gap favoring Herrera is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-8) taking on Oluwale Bamgbose (1-3).

Hall is rated at 1378 — 602 points above Bamgbose's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bamgbose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Oluwale Bamgbose. We're leaning Hall here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-9) taking on Tom Watson (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Camozzi at 986 versus Watson at 868. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Camozzi's all-rounder game against Watson's striker approach. Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Watson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Watson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Camozzi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Tom Watson. We're leaning Camozzi here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Camozzi at 57% implied while our model sees 67% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-5) taking on Willie Gates (1-2). Gates is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Ortiz is rated at 1329 — 513 points above Gates's 816. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over Willie Gates. The model is firm on this one: Ortiz at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Ortiz at 79% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Frankie Saenz (5-4) taking on Sirwan Kakai (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kakai at 1006 versus Saenz at 888. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saenz throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kakai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sirwan Kakai over Frankie Saenz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kakai at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jonathan Wilson (1-2) taking on Chris Dempsey (1-2). Wilson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wilson carries a modest Elo edge (811 to 770), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dempsey throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dempsey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Wilson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Wilson over Chris Dempsey. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wilson at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Wilson, but our model sees only 55%. That 4-point gap favoring Dempsey is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-9) taking on Roman Salazar (0-1).

Vera is rated at 1460 — 631 points above Salazar's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salazar throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Salazar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Salazar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roman Salazar over Marlon Vera. The model gives Salazar a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 54% for Vera, but our model sees only 44%. That 10-point gap favoring Salazar is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-5) taking on Anthony Christodoulou (0-1).

Holtzman is rated at 988 — 159 points above Christodoulou's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Christodoulou throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Christodoulou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Anthony Christodoulou. The model is firm on this one: Holtzman at 85%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.