UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Glover Teixeira (16-7) taking on Ovince Saint Preux (15-13). Preux will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Teixeira is rated at 1677 — 621 points above Preux's 1056. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Preux is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Preux has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ovince Saint Preux over Glover Teixeira. The model gives Preux a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-7-1) taking on Michael Johnson (16-16).

Dariush is rated at 1557 — 402 points above Johnson's 1155. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Dariush's wrestler game against Johnson's striker approach. Dariush looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Beneil Dariush. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Dariush at 40% implied while our model sees 48% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-7) taking on Sam Alvey (10-13-1).

Brunson is rated at 1563 — 701 points above Alvey's 862. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alvey is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brunson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Alvey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Derek Brunson over Sam Alvey. The model is firm on this one: Brunson at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Brunson at 78% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jared Rosholt (6-2) taking on Timothy Johnson (4-3).

Rosholt is rated at 1256 — 185 points above Johnson's 1071. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rosholt rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Rosholt over Timothy Johnson. The model is firm on this one: Rosholt at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Rosholt at 70% implied while our model sees 76% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Amanda Nunes (16-2) taking on Sara McMann (7-6). Nunes is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nunes is rated at 1707 — 518 points above McMann's 1189. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McMann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. McMann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Sara McMann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nunes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Nunes at 30% implied while our model sees 54% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Ray Borg (7-5) taking on Geane Herrera (1-3). Herrera will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Borg is rated at 1255 — 263 points above Herrera's 992. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borg throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Borg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Herrera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ray Borg over Geane Herrera. The model is firm on this one: Borg at 83%. Notably, the betting market has Borg at 80% implied while our model sees 83% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Uriah Hall (10-9) taking on Oluwale Bamgbose (1-4).

Hall is rated at 1504 — 738 points above Bamgbose's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Bamgbose has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uriah Hall over Oluwale Bamgbose. The model is firm on this one: Hall at 75%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Camozzi (9-10) taking on Tom Watson (2-5).

Camozzi is rated at 1038 — 157 points above Watson's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Camozzi's all-rounder game against Watson's striker approach. Camozzi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Watson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Watson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Watson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Camozzi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Camozzi over Tom Watson. We're leaning Camozzi here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Camozzi at 57% implied while our model sees 68% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Dustin Ortiz (8-6) taking on Willie Gates (1-3). Gates is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Ortiz is rated at 1384 — 654 points above Gates's 730. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ortiz rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Ortiz over Willie Gates. The model is firm on this one: Ortiz at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Frankie Saenz (5-5) taking on Sirwan Kakai (1-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Kakai at 1010 versus Saenz at 925. That 85-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saenz throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Kakai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Kakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Saenz over Sirwan Kakai. The model gives Saenz a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Saenz at 49% implied while our model sees 63% — a 14-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jonathan Wilson (1-3) taking on Chris Dempsey (1-3). Wilson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wilson carries a modest Elo edge (733 to 686), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dempsey throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Dempsey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Wilson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Dempsey over Jonathan Wilson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dempsey at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 59% for Wilson, but our model sees only 46%. That 12-point gap favoring Dempsey is worth watching.

The Bantamweight matchup features Marlon Vera (15-11) taking on Roman Salazar (0-2).

Vera is rated at 1489 — 738 points above Salazar's 751. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salazar throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Salazar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Salazar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marlon Vera over Roman Salazar. The model gives Vera a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Vera at 54% implied while our model sees 58% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Scott Holtzman (7-6) taking on Anthony Christodoulou (0-2).

Holtzman is rated at 1099 — 320 points above Christodoulou's 780. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Christodoulou throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Christodoulou is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Holtzman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Scott Holtzman over Anthony Christodoulou. The model is firm on this one: Holtzman at 88%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.