UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ronda Rousey (6-1) taking on Bethe Correia (5-5-1). Rousey is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Rousey is rated at 1203 — 321 points above Correia's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rousey's submission artist game against Correia's striker approach. Rousey is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Correia brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Correia throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rousey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.5 more per 15 minutes. Correia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ronda Rousey over Bethe Correia. The model is firm on this one: Rousey at 82%. The market implies 92% for Rousey, but our model sees only 82%. That 10-point gap favoring Correia is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mauricio Rua (11-11-1) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-6).

Nogueira is rated at 1142 — 266 points above Rua's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Rua's all-rounder game against Nogueira's striker approach. Rua is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nogueira brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rua throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rua is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mauricio Rua over Rogerio Nogueira. The model gives Rua a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Rua, but our model sees only 58%. That 7-point gap favoring Nogueira is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Glaico Franca Moreira (1-1) taking on Fernando Bruno (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Moreira at 971 versus Bruno at 821. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bruno throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bruno is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bruno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Glaico Franca Moreira over Fernando Bruno. The model gives Moreira a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Reginaldo Vieira (1-1) taking on Dileno Lopes (0-1).

Vieira carries a modest Elo edge (918 to 857), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lopes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lopes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dileno Lopes over Reginaldo Vieira. We're leaning Lopes here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (5-5). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Nogueira at 1008 versus Struve at 878. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Struve is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Nogueira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Struve the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nogueira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Nogueira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. The model is firm on this one: Struve at 76%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antonio Silva (3-6-1) taking on Soa Palelei (4-2).

Palelei carries a modest Elo edge (1009 to 932), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Palelei is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Palelei has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Soa Palelei over Antonio Silva. The model gives Palelei a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Claudia Gadelha (7-4) taking on Jessica Aguilar (1-3).

Gadelha is rated at 1187 — 360 points above Aguilar's 827. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gadelha throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gadelha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Claudia Gadelha over Jessica Aguilar. The model is firm on this one: Gadelha at 85%. Notably, the betting market has Gadelha at 79% implied while our model sees 85% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Neil Magny (24-12). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Maia at 1371 versus Magny at 1270. That 101-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magny throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Magny is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Magny has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Demian Maia over Neil Magny. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 61% for Maia, but our model sees only 56%. That 5-point gap favoring Magny is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Patrick Cummins (6-6) taking on Rafael Cavalcante (1-3).

Cavalcante carries a modest Elo edge (942 to 867), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummins throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.2 more per 15 minutes. Cummins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Patrick Cummins over Rafael Cavalcante. The model is firm on this one: Cummins at 86%. Notably, the betting market has Cummins at 60% implied while our model sees 86% — a 27-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Warlley Alves (8-7) taking on Nordine Taleb (7-4). Taleb is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Taleb at 976 versus Alves at 895. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Taleb brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Alves the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taleb throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Taleb is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Taleb has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Warlley Alves over Nordine Taleb. We're leaning Alves here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Alves at 67% implied while our model sees 71% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Leandro Issa (2-2). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara carries a modest Elo edge (1046 to 987), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Issa throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Issa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Issa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leandro Issa over Iuri Alcantara. We're leaning Issa here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Vitor Miranda (3-3) taking on Clint Hester (4-2).

Miranda carries a modest Elo edge (933 to 892), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hester throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hester is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Miranda has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clint Hester over Vitor Miranda. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hester at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Miranda at 41% implied while our model sees 49% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Guido Cannetti (4-5) taking on Hugo Viana (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Cannetti at 1005 versus Viana at 869. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Cannetti's all-rounder game against Viana's striker approach. Cannetti is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Viana brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cannetti throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Cannetti is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Viana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hugo Viana over Guido Cannetti. We're leaning Viana here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Cannetti at 25% implied while our model sees 33% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.