UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson
Saturday, June 6, 2015·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Middleweight✗
Dan Henderson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Henderson 37%63% Boetsch
LEANMarket: 36% (+1.0% edge)
Striker vs Knockout Artist — Striker wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -77(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Boetsch)
Heavyweight✗
Ben Rothwell won by Submission (R1)
Rothwell 47%53% Mitrione
TOSS-UPMarket: 37% (+10.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -125(favors Mitrione)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Mitrione)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Rothwell)
Lightweight✓
Dustin Poirier won by KO/TKO (R1)
Poirier 60%40% Medeiros
LEANMarket: 65% (-4.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +143(favors Poirier)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Poirier)
Featherweight✗
Brian Ortega won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ortega 50%50% Tavares
TOSS-UPMarket: 39% (+10.9% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -317(favors Tavares)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Tavares)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.3(favors Ortega)
Bantamweight✓
Anthony Birchak won by KO/TKO (R1)
Birchak 67%33% Soto
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (+30.0% edge)
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -137(favors Soto)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Birchak)
→Takedown rate advantage: +14.1(favors Birchak)
Bantamweight✓
Francisco Rivera won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rivera 58%42% Caceres
LEANMarket: 55% (+2.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Rivera)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Rivera)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Rivera)
Heavyweight✓
Shawn Jordan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Jordan 52%48% Lewis
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+0.6% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +49(favors Jordan)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Jordan)
Welterweight✗
Omari Akhmedov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Akhmedov 47%53% Ebersole
TOSS-UPMarket: 55% (-8.0% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -134(favors Ebersole)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Akhmedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Akhmedov)
Lightweight✓
Chris Wade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wade 66%34% Giagos
CONFIDENTMarket: 61% (+5.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +185(favors Wade)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Wade)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Wade)
Lightweight✓
Joe Proctor won by Submission (R3)
Proctor 74%26% Edwards
CONFIDENTMarket: 66% (+8.2% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +192(favors Proctor)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Proctor)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Edwards)
Middleweight✓
Jake Collier won by Decision - Split (R3)
Collier 59%41% Abreu
LEANMarket: 37% (+22.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -269(favors Abreu)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.4(favors Abreu)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.0(favors Collier)
Bantamweight✓
Jose Quinonez won by Submission (R1)
Quinonez 51%49% Morales
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+12.6% edge)
→Elo gap: -0(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Quinonez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Quinonez)