UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Mirko Filipovic (5-6) taking on Gabriel Gonzaga (12-10). Gonzaga will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Filipovic is rated at 1235 — 163 points above Gonzaga's 1072. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Filipovic's all-rounder game against Gonzaga's knockout artist approach. Filipovic is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gonzaga is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gonzaga throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gonzaga is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Gonzaga has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga over Mirko Filipovic. We're leaning Gonzaga here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 34% for Filipovic, but our model sees only 27%. That 7-point gap favoring Gonzaga is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jimi Manuwa (6-6) taking on Jan Blachowicz (12-8-2).

Blachowicz is rated at 1703 — 508 points above Manuwa's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Manuwa's knockout artist game against Blachowicz's all-rounder approach. Manuwa is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Blachowicz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blachowicz throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Manuwa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jimi Manuwa over Jan Blachowicz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Manuwa at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Welterweight matchup features Pawel Pawlak (1-2) taking on Sheldon Westcott (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Pawlak at 872, Westcott at 870. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pawlak throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Westcott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Pawlak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pawel Pawlak over Sheldon Westcott. We're leaning Pawlak here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pawlak at 35% implied while our model sees 65% — a 30-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Maryna Moroz (6-6) taking on Joanne Wood (9-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wood at 1133 versus Moroz at 1018. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 7.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanne Wood over Maryna Moroz. The model is firm on this one: Wood at 76%. Notably, the betting market has Moroz at 14% implied while our model sees 24% — a 10-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Leon Edwards (14-5) taking on Seth Baczynski (5-6).

Edwards is rated at 1747 — 925 points above Baczynski's 822. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baczynski throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Baczynski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Seth Baczynski. The model gives Edwards a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Edwards at 54% implied while our model sees 62% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Bartosz Fabinski (3-3) taking on Garreth McLellan (1-4). Fabinski will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fabinski is rated at 970 — 174 points above McLellan's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McLellan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. McLellan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. McLellan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bartosz Fabinski over Garreth McLellan. The model gives Fabinski a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Fabinski at 54% implied while our model sees 60% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Sergio Moraes (8-5-1) taking on Mickael Lebout (1-2).

Moraes is rated at 1267 — 259 points above Lebout's 1009. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moraes throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moraes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Lebout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergio Moraes over Mickael Lebout. The model is firm on this one: Moraes at 79%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Yaotzin Meza (2-4) taking on Damian Stasiak (2-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Meza.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Meza at 902, Stasiak at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Meza throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Meza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Stasiak has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Damian Stasiak over Yaotzin Meza. The model gives Stasiak a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 46% for Meza, but our model sees only 41%. That 4-point gap favoring Stasiak is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Hamilton (3-7) taking on Daniel Omielanczuk (4-5). Hamilton is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Omielanczuk is rated at 1005 — 290 points above Hamilton's 715. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamilton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Hamilton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Daniel Omielanczuk. The model gives Hamilton a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Hamilton at 42% implied while our model sees 61% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Aleksandra Albu (2-2) taking on Izabela Badurek (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Albu at 857, Badurek at 834. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Badurek throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Badurek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Badurek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aleksandra Albu over Izabela Badurek. We're leaning Albu here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Stevie Ray (7-4) taking on Marcin Bandel (0-2).

Ray is rated at 1257 — 555 points above Bandel's 702. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bandel throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bandel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ray has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stevie Ray over Marcin Bandel. The model gives Ray a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (6-2) taking on Rocky Lee (0-1).

Lapilus is rated at 1301 — 428 points above Lee's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taylor Lapilus over Rocky Lee. We're leaning Lapilus here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Lapilus at 65% implied while our model sees 70% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.