UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Chad Mendes (9-4) taking on Ricardo Lamas (10-6). Lamas is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mendes at 1377 versus Lamas at 1285. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Mendes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lamas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lamas the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chad Mendes over Ricardo Lamas. The model is firm on this one: Mendes at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Mendes at 79% implied while our model sees 90% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Al Iaquinta (9-5) taking on Jorge Masvidal (12-9). Masvidal will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Masvidal is rated at 1579 — 384 points above Iaquinta's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Iaquinta's knockout artist game against Masvidal's all-rounder approach. Iaquinta is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Iaquinta throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Iaquinta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over Al Iaquinta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Masvidal at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Chiesa (13-7) taking on Mitch Clarke (2-4). Chiesa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Chiesa is rated at 1490 — 688 points above Clarke's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chiesa throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiesa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Chiesa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Chiesa over Mitch Clarke. The model is firm on this one: Chiesa at 76%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Julianna Pena (8-3) taking on Milana Dudieva (1-1).

Pena is rated at 1323 — 486 points above Dudieva's 837. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pena throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pena is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Dudieva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julianna Pena over Milana Dudieva. We're leaning Pena here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pena at 71% implied while our model sees 74% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Clay Guida (18-18) taking on Robert Peralta (4-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Peralta at 1039 versus Guida at 926. That 113-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Guida's wrestler game against Peralta's striker approach. Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Peralta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peralta throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Clay Guida over Robert Peralta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guida at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-6).

Poirier is rated at 1681 — 468 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Poirier is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Poirier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Diego Ferreira. The model gives Poirier a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Liz Carmouche (5-4) taking on Lauren Murphy (8-6).

Murphy carries a modest Elo edge (1171 to 1127), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Carmouche looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Carmouche the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Carmouche is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Carmouche has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liz Carmouche over Lauren Murphy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Carmouche at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Alexander Yakovlev (3-5) taking on Gray Maynard (11-6-1). Yakovlev is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yakovlev at 970, Maynard at 975. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maynard throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Maynard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gray Maynard over Alexander Yakovlev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maynard at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 54% for Yakovlev, but our model sees only 45%. That 9-point gap favoring Maynard is worth watching.

The Heavyweight matchup features Timothy Johnson (3-3) taking on Shamil Abdurakhimov (5-5).

Johnson carries a modest Elo edge (1067 to 1018), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abdurakhimov throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Abdurakhimov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Abdurakhimov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shamil Abdurakhimov over Timothy Johnson. We're leaning Abdurakhimov here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 30% implied while our model sees 33% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Ron Stallings (1-1) taking on Justin Jones (0-1).

Stallings is rated at 1015 — 160 points above Jones's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stallings throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jones has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Justin Jones over Ron Stallings. The model gives Jones a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 45% for Stallings, but our model sees only 42%. That 3-point gap favoring Jones is worth watching.