UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Saturday, February 28, 2015·Los Angeles, California, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Women's BantamweightHIT
Ronda Rousey won by Submission (R1)
Rousey 87%13% Zingano
STRONGMarket: 86% (+0.7% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +91(favors Rousey)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Rousey)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.5(favors Rousey)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Holly Holm won by Decision - Split (R3)
Holm 78%22% Pennington
STRONGMarket: 84% (-6.7% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -104(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Pennington)
WelterweightHIT
Jake Ellenberger won by Submission (R2)
Ellenberger 70%30% Koscheck
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+5.5% edge)
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +123(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Koscheck)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Ellenberger)
WelterweightHIT
Alan Jouban won by KO/TKO (R1)
Jouban 65%35% Walsh
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (-9.1% edge)
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +31(favors Jouban)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Jouban)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Walsh)
LightweightHIT
Tony Ferguson won by Submission (R1)
Ferguson 77%23% Tibau
STRONGMarket: 69% (+7.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +120(favors Ferguson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Ferguson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.3(favors Tibau)
MiddleweightMISS
Roan Carneiro won by Submission (R1)
Carneiro 39%61% Munoz
LEANMarket: 29% (+10.4% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -222(favors Munoz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Munoz)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Carneiro)
Bantamweight
Salazar 70%30% Yamamoto
CONFIDENTMarket: 37% (+33.1% edge)
→Elo gap: +64(favors Salazar)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Yamamoto)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Yamamoto)
WelterweightMISS
Tim Means won by KO/TKO (R1)
Means 42%58% Lima
LEANMarket: 58% (-15.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Means)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.6(favors Lima)
HeavyweightHIT
Derrick Lewis won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lewis 92%8% Potts
STRONGMarket: 82% (+9.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +291(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.5(favors Lewis)
LightweightHIT
Valmir Lazaro won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lazaro 54%46% Krause
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+15.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -154(favors Krause)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Lazaro)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.6(favors Lazaro)
FeatherweightMISS
Masio Fullen won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fullen 42%58% Torres
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Torres)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Torres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Torres)