UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Silva will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mir is rated at 1252 — 321 points above Silva's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Mir's submission artist game against Silva's striker approach. Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Antonio Silva over Frank Mir.** We're leaning Silva here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Edson Barboza (18-13).

There's a real Elo separation here: Johnson at 1245 versus Barboza at 1142. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Barboza's all-rounder approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Barboza is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barboza throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Edson Barboza over Michael Johnson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barboza at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 38% implied while our model sees 47% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Sam Alvey (10-12-1) taking on Cezar Ferreira (9-5). Ferreira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ferreira is rated at 1033 — 298 points above Alvey's 734. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvey throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cezar Ferreira over Sam Alvey.** The model is firm on this one: Ferreira at 79%. The market implies 24% for Alvey, but our model sees only 21%. That 3-point gap favoring Ferreira is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Adriano Martins (4-2) taking on Rustam Khabilov (9-3).

Khabilov is rated at 1389 — 319 points above Martins's 1070. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Martins's all-rounder game against Khabilov's striker approach. Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Khabilov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martins throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Khabilov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Martins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rustam Khabilov over Adriano Martins.** The model is firm on this one: Khabilov at 82%. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Frankie Saenz (5-4) taking on Iuri Alcantara (10-6). Alcantara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Alcantara is rated at 1046 — 158 points above Saenz's 888. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Saenz's striker game against Alcantara's all-rounder approach. Saenz brings a versatile approach, while Alcantara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saenz throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Saenz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Saenz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Frankie Saenz over Iuri Alcantara.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Saenz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Sean Strickland (16-7). Strickland will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Strickland is rated at 1813 — 636 points above Ponzinibbio's 1177. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Ponzinibbio's striker game against Strickland's all-rounder approach. Ponzinibbio brings a versatile approach, while Strickland is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Strickland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Strickland over Santiago Ponzinibbio.** The model is firm on this one: Strickland at 79%. The market implies 35% for Ponzinibbio, but our model sees only 21%. That 14-point gap favoring Strickland is worth watching.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Marion Reneau (5-6-1) taking on Jessica Andrade (17-12). Reneau is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Andrade is rated at 1115 — 238 points above Reneau's 878. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Reneau's all-rounder game against Andrade's knockout artist approach. Reneau is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Andrade is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Reneau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Marion Reneau.** The model gives Andrade a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Reneau at 30% implied while our model sees 39% — a 9-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Matt Dwyer (1-2) taking on William Macario (1-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Dwyer.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dwyer at 901 versus Macario at 789. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Macario throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Macario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Dwyer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: William Macario over Matt Dwyer.** We're leaning Macario here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Dwyer at 23% implied while our model sees 29% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Mike de la Torre (2-3) taking on Tiago dos Santos e Silva (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Torre at 936, Silva at 911. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Torre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tiago dos Santos e Silva over Mike de la Torre.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Douglas Silva de Andrade (7-5) taking on Cody Gibson (3-6). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Andrade is rated at 1146 — 303 points above Gibson's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Gibson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Gibson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gibson throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Gibson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cody Gibson over Douglas Silva de Andrade.** We're leaning Gibson here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Ivan Jorge (2-1) taking on Josh Shockley (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jorge at 926 versus Shockley at 810. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorge throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Jorge is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Shockley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ivan Jorge over Josh Shockley.** We're leaning Jorge here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Jorge at 68% implied while our model sees 73% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.