UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
Saturday, February 14, 2015·Broomfield, Colorado, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✗
Benson Henderson won by Submission (R4)
Henderson 41%59% Thatch
LEANMarket: 43% (-1.7% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +144(favors Henderson)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.3(favors Thatch)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Thatch)
Featherweight✓
Max Holloway won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holloway 89%11% Miller
STRONGMarket: 79% (+10.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Miller)
Welterweight✓
Neil Magny won by Submission (R3)
Magny 93%7% Kunimoto
STRONGMarket: 83% (+9.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +132(favors Magny)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Magny)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Magny)
Middleweight✓
Daniel Kelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Kelly 53%47% Walsh
TOSS-UPMarket: 38% (+14.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +34(favors Kelly)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.9(favors Kelly)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Walsh)
Lightweight✓
Kevin Lee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lee 82%18% Prazeres
STRONGMarket: 58% (+23.6% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +12(favors Lee)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Lee)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Prazeres)
Flyweight✓
Ray Borg won by Submission (R3)
Borg 80%20% Kelades
STRONGMarket: 87% (-6.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -43(favors Kelades)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Kelades)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.2(favors Borg)
Lightweight✗
Efrain Escudero won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Escudero 48%52% Lima
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -13(favors Lima)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Escudero)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Lima)
Featherweight✓
Chas Skelly won by KO/TKO (R2)
Skelly 68%32% Alers
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +21(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Alers)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Skelly)
Flyweight✗
Zach Makovsky won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Makovsky 48%52% Elliott
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (-2.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +95(favors Makovsky)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Elliott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Elliott)
Lightweight✓
James Moontasri won by Submission (R2)
Moontasri 67%33% Pfister
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (-0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -68(favors Pfister)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.3(favors Moontasri)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pfister)