UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (10-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Gustafsson.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 539 points above Gustafsson's 1169. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Johnson is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Gustafsson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Johnson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gustafsson throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Gustafsson over Anthony Johnson. We're leaning Gustafsson here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 27% implied while our model sees 30% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Middleweight matchup features Gegard Mousasi (8-3) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8). Mousasi is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Mousasi is rated at 1761 — 357 points above Henderson's 1404. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mousasi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Mousasi's all-rounder game against Henderson's striker approach. Mousasi is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Henderson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mousasi throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Mousasi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Dan Henderson. The model is firm on this one: Mousasi at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Mousasi at 82% implied while our model sees 90% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ryan Bader (14-5) taking on Phil Davis (9-2). Davis will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bader is rated at 1619 — 192 points above Davis's 1427. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bader is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Ryan Bader. The model gives Davis a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Bader at 33% implied while our model sees 40% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Sam Sicilia (5-6) taking on Akira Corassani (3-2).

Corassani carries a modest Elo edge (866 to 827), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Sicilia's wrestler game against Corassani's striker approach. Sicilia looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Corassani brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Corassani throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Sicilia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Sicilia over Akira Corassani. The model gives Sicilia a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Sicilia at 48% implied while our model sees 60% — a 13-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Welterweight matchup features Albert Tumenov (5-2) taking on Nicholas Musoke (3-2).

Tumenov is rated at 1109 — 173 points above Musoke's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Tumenov's striker game against Musoke's wrestler approach. Tumenov brings a versatile approach, while Musoke looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Musoke throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Musoke is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Musoke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Albert Tumenov over Nicholas Musoke. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tumenov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Robertson (4-4) taking on Sultan Aliev (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Robertson at 1097, Aliev at 1088. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Robertson throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Robertson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Aliev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Robertson over Sultan Aliev. The model gives Robertson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Robertson at 38% implied while our model sees 57% — a 19-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Makwan Amirkhani (7-6) taking on Andy Ogle (1-4). Amirkhani is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Amirkhani is rated at 965 — 241 points above Ogle's 724. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Amirkhani's wrestler game against Ogle's striker approach. Amirkhani looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ogle brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ogle throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Amirkhani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Makwan Amirkhani over Andy Ogle. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Amirkhani at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Amirkhani at 41% implied while our model sees 52% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Nikita Krylov (11-9) taking on Stanislav Nedkov (1-1). Krylov is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Krylov is rated at 1400 — 519 points above Nedkov's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krylov throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nedkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Nedkov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nikita Krylov over Stanislav Nedkov. We're leaning Krylov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Krylov at 54% implied while our model sees 74% — a 20-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Mairbek Taisumov (7-1) taking on Anthony Christodoulou (0-1).

Taisumov is rated at 1362 — 533 points above Christodoulou's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Taisumov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taisumov throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Taisumov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Christodoulou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mairbek Taisumov over Anthony Christodoulou. The model is firm on this one: Taisumov at 94%. Notably, the betting market has Taisumov at 88% implied while our model sees 94% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Mirsad Bektic (6-3) taking on Paul Redmond (0-1).

Bektic is rated at 1010 — 177 points above Redmond's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bektic throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Bektic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Redmond has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mirsad Bektic over Paul Redmond. The model is firm on this one: Bektic at 92%. Notably, the betting market has Bektic at 85% implied while our model sees 92% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Viktor Pesta (1-3) taking on Konstantin Erokhin (0-1).

Erokhin carries a modest Elo edge (826 to 756), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pesta throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Pesta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Erokhin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Konstantin Erokhin over Viktor Pesta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Erokhin at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. Notably, the betting market has Pesta at 23% implied while our model sees 46% — a 24-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Flyweight matchup features Neil Seery (3-3) taking on Chris Beal (2-2). Beal is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Seery at 961 versus Beal at 811. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Seery throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Beal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Seery has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Beal over Neil Seery. The model gives Beal a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Seery at 36% implied while our model sees 43% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.