UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver
Sunday, January 18, 2015·Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Model Record: 9/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Featherweight✓
Conor McGregor won by KO/TKO (R2)
McGregor 92%8% Siver
STRONGMarket: 90% (+1.7% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +197(favors McGregor)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors McGregor)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors McGregor)
Lightweight✗
Donald Cerrone won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cerrone 38%62% Henderson
LEANMarket: 45% (-6.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +250(favors Cerrone)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Cerrone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Henderson)
Middleweight✓
Uriah Hall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hall 74%26% Stallings
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +152(favors Hall)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Hall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Hall)
Lightweight✗
Gleison Tibau won by Decision - Split (R3)
Tibau 47%53% Parke
TOSS-UPMarket: 57% (-9.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Parke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Tibau)
Welterweight✓
Cathal Pendred won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pendred 64%36% Spencer
LEANMarket: 41% (+22.7% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +102(favors Pendred)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Spencer)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Pendred)
Welterweight✗
Lorenz Larkin won by KO/TKO (R1)
Larkin 49%51% Howard
TOSS-UPMarket: 59% (-9.3% edge)
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -126(favors Howard)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Larkin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Howard)
Lightweight✓
Chris Wade won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wade 67%33% Lipeng
CONFIDENTMarket: 82% (-14.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -26(favors Lipeng)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Lipeng)
→Takedown rate advantage: +9.5(favors Wade)
Flyweight✓
Paddy Holohan won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Holohan 76%24% Howell
STRONG
→Elo gap: +133(favors Holohan)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Holohan)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Holohan)
Lightweight✓
Johnny Case won by KO/TKO (R3)
Case 61%39% Perez
LEAN
→Elo gap: +88(favors Case)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Case)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Perez)
Featherweight✓
Charles Rosa won by Submission (R3)
Rosa 51%49% Soriano
TOSS-UPMarket: 56% (-5.0% edge)
→Elo gap: +132(favors Rosa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Rosa)
Light Heavyweight✓
Sean O'Connell won by KO/TKO (R3)
O'Connell 64%36% Buren
LEANMarket: 64% (-0.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -24(favors Buren)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.4(favors O'Connell)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Buren)
Flyweight✓
Joby Sanchez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Sanchez 60%40% Matsuda
LEANMarket: 61% (-1.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -22(favors Matsuda)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Matsuda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Matsuda)