The Ultimate Fighter: A Champion Will Be Crowned Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Carla Esparza (10-5) taking on Rose Namajunas (12-6). Namajunas is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Namajunas at 1421 versus Esparza at 1274. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Esparza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Namajunas is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Esparza the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Namajunas throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Namajunas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Carla Esparza.** The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (23-11) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18). Oliveira will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 905 points above Stephens's 941. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Stephens throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jeremy Stephens over Charles Oliveira.** The model gives Stephens a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 45% for Oliveira, but our model sees only 37%. That 8-point gap favoring Stephens is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features KJ Noons (2-2) taking on Daron Cruickshank (6-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Noons at 887, Cruickshank at 879. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Noons throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruickshank is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Noons has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daron Cruickshank over KJ Noons.** We're leaning Cruickshank here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Yancy Medeiros (6-7) taking on Joe Proctor (4-3). Medeiros will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Medeiros carries a modest Elo edge (999 to 947), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Proctor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Proctor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yancy Medeiros over Joe Proctor.** The model is firm on this one: Medeiros at 77%. Notably, the betting market has Medeiros at 69% implied while our model sees 77% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Penne (3-5) taking on Randa Markos (6-10-1). Penne will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Markos is rated at 974 — 171 points above Penne's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Markos throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Markos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Markos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randa Markos over Jessica Penne.** The model gives Markos a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 49% for Penne, but our model sees only 36%. That 13-point gap favoring Markos is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Felice Herrig (5-4) taking on Lisa Ellis (0-1).

Herrig carries a modest Elo edge (822 to 787), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ellis throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ellis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Felice Herrig over Lisa Ellis.** The model is firm on this one: Herrig at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Herrig at 77% implied while our model sees 88% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Heather Clark (1-1) taking on Bec Rawlings (2-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Clark at 918 versus Rawlings at 787. That 130-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rawlings throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rawlings is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rawlings has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bec Rawlings over Heather Clark.** We're leaning Rawlings here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market implies 37% for Clark, but our model sees only 29%. That 8-point gap favoring Rawlings is worth watching.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Seo Hee Ham (1-2). Wood is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wood is rated at 1101 — 245 points above Ham's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ham throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joanne Wood over Seo Hee Ham.** The model is firm on this one: Wood at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Wood at 83% implied while our model sees 88% — a 5-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Tecia Pennington (11-7) taking on Angela Magana (0-2). Magana will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pennington is rated at 1206 — 487 points above Magana's 719. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Magana throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Magana is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Magana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tecia Pennington over Angela Magana.** The model is firm on this one: Pennington at 89%. Notably, the betting market has Pennington at 83% implied while our model sees 89% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Aisling Daly (1-1) taking on Alex Chambers (1-3).

Daly is rated at 1055 — 253 points above Chambers's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chambers throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chambers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Chambers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Aisling Daly over Alex Chambers.** We're leaning Daly here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Daly at 66% implied while our model sees 73% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Angela Hill (13-15) taking on Emily Kagan (0-1).

Hill is rated at 1074 — 314 points above Kagan's 760. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kagan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kagan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kagan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Angela Hill over Emily Kagan.** The model gives Hill a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.