UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Saturday, November 22, 2014·Austin, Texas, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
FeatherweightHIT
Frankie Edgar won by Submission (R5)
Edgar 62%38% Swanson
LEANMarket: 67% (-5.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -50(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Edgar)
LightweightHIT
Edson Barboza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barboza 57%43% Green
LEANMarket: 51% (+6.3% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Knockout Artist — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -20(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Green)
FlyweightMISS
Chico Camus won by Decision - Split (R3)
Camus 37%63% Pickett
LEANMarket: 33% (+3.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -53(favors Pickett)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pickett)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleinik 28%72% Rosholt
CONFIDENTMarket: 33% (-4.9% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -171(favors Rosholt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Oleinik)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benavidez 86%14% Ortiz
STRONGMarket: 77% (+8.5% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +111(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Ortiz)
LightweightHIT
Matt Wiman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wiman 72%28% Vallie-Flagg
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+7.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +304(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Vallie-Flagg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Wiman)
HeavyweightHIT
Ruslan Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 81%19% Copeland
STRONGMarket: 66% (+14.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +85(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Copeland)
MiddleweightMISS
Roger Narvaez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Narvaez 15%85% Barnatt
STRONGMarket: 27% (-12.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -331(favors Barnatt)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Barnatt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Barnatt)
LightweightHIT
James Vick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vick 73%27% Hein
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+7.8% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Hein)
LightweightMISS
Akbarh Arreola won by Submission (R1)
Arreola 46%54% Edwards
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+10.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -19(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Arreola)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Paige VanZant won by KO/TKO (R3)
VanZant 55%45% Curran
LEANMarket: 58% (-3.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Curran)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Curran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Curran)
FeatherweightHIT
Dooho Choi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Choi 59%41% Puig
LEAN
→Elo gap: +91(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Puig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Puig)