UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson
Saturday, November 22, 2014·Austin, Texas, USA·12 fights
Model: 8/12(67%)
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Main Card
FeatherweightHIT
Frankie Edgar won by Submission (R5)
Edgar 67%33% Swanson
Over/UnderOver 72%
Under 28%Over 72%
CONFIDENTMarket: 67% (+0.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -19(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Edgar)
LightweightHIT
Edson Barboza won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barboza 52%48% Green
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
TOSS-UPMarket: 51% (+1.1% edge)
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -131(favors Green)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Barboza)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Green)
FlyweightMISS
Chico Camus won by Decision - Split (R3)
Camus 38%62% Pickett
Over/UnderOver 66%
Under 34%Over 66%
LEANMarket: 33% (+4.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -113(favors Pickett)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Pickett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Pickett)
HeavyweightMISS
Aleksei Oleinik won by KO/TKO (R1)
Oleinik 23%77% Rosholt
Over/UnderUnder 60%
Under 60%Over 40%
STRONGMarket: 33% (-9.8% edge)
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -269(favors Rosholt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Oleinik)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Oleinik)
FlyweightHIT
Joseph Benavidez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benavidez 84%16% Ortiz
Over/UnderOver 63%
Under 37%Over 63%
STRONGMarket: 77% (+6.4% edge)
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +72(favors Benavidez)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Benavidez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Ortiz)
LightweightHIT
Matt Wiman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wiman 66%34% Vallie-Flagg
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENTMarket: 64% (+1.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +374(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Vallie-Flagg)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Wiman)
Prelims
HeavyweightHIT
Ruslan Magomedov won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Magomedov 78%22% Copeland
Over/UnderUnder 63%
Under 63%Over 37%
STRONGMarket: 66% (+11.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +128(favors Magomedov)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Magomedov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Copeland)
MiddleweightMISS
Roger Narvaez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Narvaez 14%86% Barnatt
Over/UnderUnder 66%
Under 66%Over 34%
STRONGMarket: 27% (-13.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -464(favors Barnatt)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.4(favors Barnatt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Barnatt)
LightweightHIT
James Vick won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Vick 67%33% Hein
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
CONFIDENTMarket: 65% (+2.1% edge)
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +224(favors Vick)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Vick)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Hein)
LightweightHIT
Akbarh Arreola won by Submission (R1)
Arreola 51%49% Edwards
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UPMarket: 36% (+15.4% edge)
→Elo gap: -149(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Arreola)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Paige VanZant won by KO/TKO (R3)
VanZant 59%41% Curran
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 58% (+0.6% edge)
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -0(favors Curran)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Curran)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Curran)
FeatherweightMISS
Dooho Choi won by KO/TKO (R1)
Choi 44%56% Puig
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +106(favors Choi)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.5(favors Puig)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Puig)