UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Chad Mendes (9-4). Aldo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aldo carries a modest Elo edge (1420 to 1377), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Aldo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Mendes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Aldo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mendes throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mendes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Mendes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jose Aldo over Chad Mendes.** The model gives Aldo a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Glover Teixeira (16-6). Davis will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Teixeira is rated at 1596 — 169 points above Davis's 1427. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Teixeira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Phil Davis over Glover Teixeira.** The model gives Davis a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Fabio Maldonado (5-5) taking on Hans Stringer (1-1).

Maldonado is rated at 1043 — 204 points above Stringer's 839. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maldonado throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stringer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Maldonado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fabio Maldonado over Hans Stringer.** The model gives Maldonado a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on Lucas Martins (3-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Elkins at 1113, Martins at 1095. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Elkins looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Martins is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Elkins the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martins throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Darren Elkins over Lucas Martins.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Elkins at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-6-1) taking on Diego Ferreira (10-6).

Dariush is rated at 1437 — 224 points above Ferreira's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dariush is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Ferreira over Beneil Dariush.** We're leaning Ferreira here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Neil Magny (24-12) taking on William Macario (1-2). Magny is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Magny is rated at 1270 — 482 points above Macario's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Macario throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Macario is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Macario has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: William Macario over Neil Magny.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Macario at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Yan Cabral (2-2) taking on Naoyuki Kotani (0-4). Cabral is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Cabral is rated at 900 — 216 points above Kotani's 684. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cabral throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cabral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Cabral has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yan Cabral over Naoyuki Kotani.** The model is firm on this one: Cabral at 81%.

The Flyweight matchup features Wilson Reis (7-5) taking on Scott Jorgensen (4-7).

Reis is rated at 1083 — 347 points above Jorgensen's 735. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jorgensen throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Reis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Reis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wilson Reis over Scott Jorgensen.** The model gives Reis a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Felipe Arantes (5-5-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Fili.

Fili is rated at 1140 — 214 points above Arantes's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fili's striker game against Arantes's all-rounder approach. Fili brings a versatile approach, while Arantes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fili throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Arantes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Felipe Arantes over Andre Fili.** The model gives Arantes a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Gilbert Burns (15-8) taking on Christos Giagos (6-7).

Burns is rated at 1379 — 439 points above Giagos's 940. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Giagos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Giagos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Burns throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Giagos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gilbert Burns over Christos Giagos.** The model gives Burns a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Anthony Rocco Martin (9-5) taking on Fabricio Camoes (1-3-1). Martin is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Martin is rated at 1419 — 574 points above Camoes's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Martin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Camoes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Camoes the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Camoes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Camoes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Rocco Martin over Fabricio Camoes.** The model gives Martin a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.