UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
Saturday, October 4, 2014·Stockholm, Sweden·11 fights
Model: 11/11(100%)
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Main Card
WelterweightHIT
Rick Story won by Decision - Split (R5)
Story 51%49% Nelson
Over/UnderOver 70%
Under 30%Over 70%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -162(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Story)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Story)
FeatherweightHIT
Max Holloway won by KO/TKO (R1)
Holloway 70%30% Corassani
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +171(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Corassani)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jan Blachowicz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Blachowicz 50%50% Latifi
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -239(favors Latifi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Latifi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Latifi)
FeatherweightHIT
Mike Wilkinson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wilkinson 65%35% Backstrom
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -175(favors Backstrom)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Wilkinson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Wilkinson)
MiddleweightHIT
Magnus Cedenblad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cedenblad 56%44% Askham
Over/UnderUnder 55%
Under 55%Over 45%
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +247(favors Cedenblad)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cedenblad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Cedenblad)
WelterweightHIT
Nicholas Musoke won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Musoke 68%32% Yakovlev
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +250(favors Musoke)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Musoke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Musoke)
Prelims
FeatherweightHIT
Dennis Siver won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Siver 72%28% Rosa
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +401(favors Siver)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Siver)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Siver)
WelterweightHIT
Cathal Pendred won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pendred 64%36% Umalatov
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +134(favors Pendred)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Umalatov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Pendred)
MiddleweightHIT
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jotko 60%40% Troeng
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +5(favors Jotko)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Troeng)
LightweightHIT
Mairbek Taisumov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Taisumov 61%39% Bandel
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -34(favors Bandel)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Taisumov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Taisumov)
FeatherweightHIT
Zubaira Tukhugov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tukhugov 77%23% Chavez
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
STRONG
→Elo gap: +124(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Chavez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Tukhugov)