UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
Saturday, October 4, 2014·Stockholm, Sweden
Model Record: 10/11Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightMISS
Rick Story won by Decision - Split (R5)
Story 50%50% Nelson
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -75(favors Nelson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.5(favors Story)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Story)
FeatherweightHIT
Max Holloway won by KO/TKO (R1)
Holloway 60%40% Corassani
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +178(favors Holloway)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Holloway)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Corassani)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Jan Blachowicz won by KO/TKO (R1)
Blachowicz 59%41% Latifi
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -160(favors Latifi)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Latifi)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.2(favors Latifi)
FeatherweightHIT
Mike Wilkinson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Wilkinson 62%38% Backstrom
LEAN
→Elo gap: -122(favors Backstrom)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Wilkinson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.8(favors Wilkinson)
MiddleweightHIT
Magnus Cedenblad won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cedenblad 61%39% Askham
LEAN
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +135(favors Cedenblad)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Cedenblad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Cedenblad)
WelterweightHIT
Nicholas Musoke won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Musoke 64%36% Yakovlev
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +162(favors Musoke)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Musoke)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Musoke)
FeatherweightHIT
Dennis Siver won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Siver 68%32% Rosa
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +276(favors Siver)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.8(favors Siver)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Siver)
WelterweightHIT
Cathal Pendred won by Decision - Split (R3)
Pendred 60%40% Umalatov
LEAN
→Elo gap: +116(favors Pendred)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Umalatov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.8(favors Pendred)
MiddleweightHIT
Krzysztof Jotko won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jotko 60%40% Troeng
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Troeng)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.0(favors Jotko)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Troeng)
LightweightHIT
Mairbek Taisumov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Taisumov 65%35% Bandel
LEAN
→Elo gap: -22(favors Bandel)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Taisumov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Taisumov)
FeatherweightHIT
Zubaira Tukhugov won by KO/TKO (R1)
Tukhugov 76%24% Chavez
STRONG
→Elo gap: +98(favors Tukhugov)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.5(favors Chavez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Tukhugov)