UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Demetrious Johnson (15-1-1) taking on Chris Cariaso (7-5).

Johnson is rated at 1603 — 672 points above Cariaso's 931. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 13-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Johnson's wrestler game against Cariaso's knockout artist approach. Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cariaso is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Demetrious Johnson over Chris Cariaso.** We're leaning Johnson here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Donald Cerrone (23-13) taking on Eddie Alvarez (4-2). Cerrone is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1398 — 344 points above Cerrone's 1054. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Cerrone is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Alvarez brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Cerrone the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerrone throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Cerrone is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Donald Cerrone over Eddie Alvarez.** The model is firm on this one: Cerrone at 77%.

The Featherweight matchup features Conor McGregor (10-3) taking on Dustin Poirier (22-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Poirier at 1681 versus McGregor at 1573. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: McGregor brings a versatile approach, while Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Poirier throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. McGregor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. McGregor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Conor McGregor over Dustin Poirier.** The model gives McGregor a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoel Romero (9-3) taking on Tim Kennedy (3-1).

Romero is rated at 1613 — 387 points above Kennedy's 1227. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Romero throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Romero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Romero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yoel Romero over Tim Kennedy.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Romero at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Cat Zingano (3-3) taking on Amanda Nunes (15-2).

Nunes is rated at 1636 — 628 points above Zingano's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Nunes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.3 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Amanda Nunes over Cat Zingano.** The model gives Nunes a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Dominick Cruz (7-2) taking on Takeya Mizugaki (8-5).

Cruz is rated at 1446 — 451 points above Mizugaki's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Cruz's striker game against Mizugaki's all-rounder approach. Cruz brings a versatile approach, while Mizugaki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizugaki throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cruz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Takeya Mizugaki over Dominick Cruz.** The model gives Mizugaki a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Jorge Masvidal (12-9) taking on James Krause (8-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Krause.

There's a real Elo separation here: Masvidal at 1579 versus Krause at 1436. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Masvidal's all-rounder game against Krause's knockout artist approach. Masvidal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Krause is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Krause throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Masvidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Masvidal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jorge Masvidal over James Krause.** We're leaning Masvidal here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Stephen Thompson (12-8-1) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10).

There's a real Elo separation here: Thompson at 1329 versus Cote at 1221. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Thompson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Stephen Thompson over Patrick Cote.** We're leaning Thompson here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Brian Ebersole (5-2) taking on John Howard (7-6). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Ebersole.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ebersole at 1065 versus Howard at 932. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ebersole's striker game against Howard's all-rounder approach. Ebersole brings a versatile approach, while Howard is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ebersole throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Ebersole has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Brian Ebersole over John Howard.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ebersole at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Kevin Lee (11-7) taking on Jon Tuck (4-4). Lee will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lee is rated at 1197 — 191 points above Tuck's 1006. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuck throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Tuck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Lee over Jon Tuck.** We're leaning Lee here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Manvel Gamburyan (6-7) taking on Cody Gibson (3-6). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gamburyan at 972 versus Gibson at 843. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gamburyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Gibson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Gamburyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manvel Gamburyan over Cody Gibson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gamburyan at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.