UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson lands on Saturday, September 20, 2014 in Saitama, Japan with 12 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Hunt vs Roy NelsonHeavyweight | Roy Nelson | Toss-up | 51% |
| Myles Jury vs Takanori GomiLightweight | Myles Jury | Strong | 76% |
| Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Amir SadollahWelterweight | Amir Sadollah | Toss-up | 52% |
| Miesha Tate vs Rin NakaiWomen's Bantamweight | Miesha Tate | Lean | 61% |
| Kiichi Kunimoto vs Richard WalshWelterweight | Richard Walsh | Lean | 59% |
| Kyoji Horiguchi vs Jon Delos ReyesFlyweight | Kyoji Horiguchi | Lean | 59% |
| Masanori Kanehara vs Alex CaceresBantamweight | Alex Caceres | Lean | 59% |
| Katsunori Kikuno vs Sam SiciliaFeatherweight | Sam Sicilia | Lean | 61% |
| Hyun Gyu Lim vs Takenori SatoWelterweight | Hyun Gyu Lim | Strong | 78% |
| Kyung Ho Kang vs Michinori TanakaBantamweight | Michinori Tanaka | Toss-up | 53% |
| Johnny Case vs Kazuki TokudomeLightweight | Johnny Case | Toss-up | 50% |
| Maximo Blanco vs Dan HookerFeatherweight | Dan Hooker | Lean | 57% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Mark Hunt vs Roy Nelson
The Heavyweight matchup features Mark Hunt (8-7-1) taking on Roy Nelson (9-9).
Hunt carries a modest Elo edge (1169 to 1129), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Hunt's all-rounder game against Nelson's striker approach. Hunt is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nelson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hunt throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hunt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Hunt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Roy Nelson over Mark Hunt. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Nelson at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Myles Jury vs Takanori Gomi
The Lightweight matchup features Myles Jury (8-3) taking on Takanori Gomi (4-8). Jury is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Jury is rated at 1141 — 410 points above Gomi's 732. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Jury's wrestler game against Gomi's striker approach. Jury looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Gomi brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gomi throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jury is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Jury has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Myles Jury over Takanori Gomi. The model is firm on this one: Jury at 76%.
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Amir Sadollah
The Welterweight matchup features Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-4) taking on Amir Sadollah (6-4).
Akiyama carries a modest Elo edge (985 to 946), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Akiyama is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Amir Sadollah over Yoshihiro Akiyama. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sadollah at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Miesha Tate vs Rin Nakai
The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Miesha Tate (7-6) taking on Rin Nakai (0-1).
Tate is rated at 1077 — 259 points above Nakai's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tate throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Tate is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Nakai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Miesha Tate over Rin Nakai. The model gives Tate a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Kiichi Kunimoto vs Richard Walsh
The Welterweight matchup features Kiichi Kunimoto (3-1) taking on Richard Walsh (2-3). Walsh is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Kunimoto is rated at 1025 — 183 points above Walsh's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Walsh throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Walsh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Walsh has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Richard Walsh over Kiichi Kunimoto. The model gives Walsh a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Kyoji Horiguchi vs Jon Delos Reyes
The Flyweight matchup features Kyoji Horiguchi (8-1) taking on Jon Delos Reyes (1-2). Reyes is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Horiguchi is rated at 1528 — 648 points above Reyes's 880. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Horiguchi rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Reyes throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Reyes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Reyes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi over Jon Delos Reyes. The model gives Horiguchi a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Masanori Kanehara vs Alex Caceres
The Bantamweight matchup features Masanori Kanehara (1-1) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12). Caceres is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Caceres is rated at 1232 — 247 points above Kanehara's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Kanehara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Alex Caceres over Masanori Kanehara. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Katsunori Kikuno vs Sam Sicilia
The Featherweight matchup features Katsunori Kikuno (2-2) taking on Sam Sicilia (5-6).
There's a real Elo separation here: Kikuno at 948 versus Sicilia at 827. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Sicilia throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sicilia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Kikuno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sam Sicilia over Katsunori Kikuno. The model gives Sicilia a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Hyun Gyu Lim vs Takenori Sato
The Welterweight matchup features Hyun Gyu Lim (3-3) taking on Takenori Sato (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lim at 875, Sato at 857. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lim throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Lim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Hyun Gyu Lim over Takenori Sato. The model is firm on this one: Lim at 78%.
Kyung Ho Kang vs Michinori Tanaka
The Bantamweight matchup features Kyung Ho Kang (8-4) taking on Michinori Tanaka (2-2). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Kang at 1029 versus Tanaka at 929. That 100-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kang throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Tanaka has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Michinori Tanaka over Kyung Ho Kang. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tanaka at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Johnny Case vs Kazuki Tokudome
The Lightweight matchup features Johnny Case (4-1) taking on Kazuki Tokudome (1-2).
Case is rated at 1049 — 208 points above Tokudome's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tokudome throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Tokudome is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Case has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johnny Case over Kazuki Tokudome. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Case at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Maximo Blanco vs Dan Hooker
The Featherweight matchup features Maximo Blanco (4-4) taking on Dan Hooker (14-9). Hooker is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Hooker is rated at 1450 — 438 points above Blanco's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Blanco's all-rounder game against Hooker's knockout artist approach. Blanco is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Hooker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hooker throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanco is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Hooker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dan Hooker over Maximo Blanco. The model gives Hooker a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.