UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Antonio Silva (3-6-1). Silva will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 858), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Arlovski's all-rounder game against Silva's striker approach. Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Antonio Silva.** We're leaning Arlovski here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Piotr Hallmann (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Tibau at 1019 versus Hallmann at 882. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hallmann throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Piotr Hallmann.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Leonardo Santos (7-2-1) taking on Efrain Escudero (5-6). Santos is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Santos at 1039 versus Escudero at 941. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Santos's all-rounder game against Escudero's knockout artist approach. Santos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Escudero is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Escudero throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Santos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Escudero has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Leonardo Santos over Efrain Escudero.** The model gives Santos a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Santiago Ponzinibbio (12-7) taking on Wendell Oliveira Marques (0-1).

Ponzinibbio is rated at 1177 — 402 points above Marques's 775. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ponzinibbio throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Marques is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Marques has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Wendell Oliveira Marques over Santiago Ponzinibbio.** The model gives Marques a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Iuri Alcantara (10-6) taking on Russell Doane (3-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Alcantara at 1046 versus Doane at 952. That 94-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Alcantara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Doane looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Doane the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Doane throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Doane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Doane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Russell Doane over Iuri Alcantara.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Doane at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Larissa Pacheco (0-1).

Andrade is rated at 1115 — 326 points above Pacheco's 789. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 7.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Andrade is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Pacheco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jessica Andrade over Larissa Pacheco.** We're leaning Andrade here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Godofredo Pepey (5-5) taking on Dashon Johnson (0-1).

Pepey is rated at 1026 — 225 points above Johnson's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pepey throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pepey is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Pepey has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Godofredo Pepey over Dashon Johnson.** The model gives Pepey a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features George Sullivan (3-3) taking on Igor Araujo (2-1). Araujo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Araujo carries a modest Elo edge (954 to 884), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sullivan throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sullivan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Sullivan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: George Sullivan over Igor Araujo.** The model gives Sullivan a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Francisco Trinaldo (18-7) taking on Leandro Silva (3-3).

Trinaldo is rated at 1329 — 280 points above Silva's 1049. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Trinaldo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Trinaldo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Trinaldo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Francisco Trinaldo over Leandro Silva.** The model gives Trinaldo a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Spencer (3-4) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7).

Spencer carries a modest Elo edge (862 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Spencer's striker game against Thiago's all-rounder approach. Spencer brings a versatile approach, while Thiago is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spencer throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Thiago is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Spencer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Spencer over Paulo Thiago.** The model gives Spencer a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Johnny Bedford (2-2). Bedford is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Yahya is rated at 1030 — 188 points above Bedford's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bedford throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Bedford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Rani Yahya over Johnny Bedford.** The model gives Yahya a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.