UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Friday, September 5, 2014·Ledyard, Connecticut, USA
Model Record: 5/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
MiddleweightHIT
Jacare Souza won by Submission (R3)
Souza 59%41% Mousasi
LEAN
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +242(favors Souza)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Mousasi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Souza)
HeavyweightHIT
Ben Rothwell won by KO/TKO (R1)
Rothwell 53%47% Overeem
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Rothwell)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Overeem)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.7(favors Rothwell)
HeavyweightMISS
Matt Mitrione won by KO/TKO (R1)
Mitrione 44%56% Lewis
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -5(favors Lewis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Lewis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.8(favors Lewis)
LightweightMISS
Joe Lauzon won by KO/TKO (R2)
Lauzon 42%58% Chiesa
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -36(favors Chiesa)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Lauzon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Chiesa)
FlyweightMISS
John Moraga won by Submission (R2)
Moraga 43%57% Scoggins
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +24(favors Moraga)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Scoggins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Scoggins)
LightweightHIT
Al Iaquinta won by KO/TKO (R3)
Iaquinta 71%29% Damm
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Damm)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Iaquinta)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Iaquinta)
MiddleweightHIT
Rafael Natal won by Decision - Split (R3)
Natal 65%35% Camozzi
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +116(favors Natal)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Camozzi)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Natal)
BantamweightHIT
Chris Beal won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Beal 67%33% Matsuda
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +128(favors Beal)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Beal)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Matsuda)
FeatherweightMISS
Chas Skelly won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Skelly 47%53% Soriano
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +149(favors Skelly)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Soriano)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Skelly)