UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features TJ Dillashaw (13-4) taking on Joe Soto (3-4).

Dillashaw is rated at 1581 — 618 points above Soto's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Dillashaw is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Soto is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Dillashaw the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dillashaw throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Dillashaw is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Soto has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: TJ Dillashaw over Joe Soto.** We're leaning Dillashaw here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Tony Ferguson (15-8) taking on Danny Castillo (7-6). Ferguson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ferguson at 1065 versus Castillo at 951. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Ferguson's knockout artist game against Castillo's wrestler approach. Ferguson is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Castillo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferguson throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Castillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tony Ferguson over Danny Castillo.** We're leaning Ferguson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bethe Correia (5-5-1) taking on Shayna Baszler (0-1).

Correia carries a modest Elo edge (883 to 840), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Correia throws significantly more leather — a 5.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Correia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Baszler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bethe Correia over Shayna Baszler.** The model is firm on this one: Correia at 80%.

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Ferreira (10-6) taking on Ramsey Nijem (5-4).

Ferreira is rated at 1213 — 269 points above Nijem's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ferreira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Nijem is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Nijem the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ferreira throws significantly more leather — a 7.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ferreira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 19.0 more per 15 minutes. Nijem has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diego Ferreira over Ramsey Nijem.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ferreira at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Yancy Medeiros (6-7) taking on Damon Jackson (6-5-1). Medeiros will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jackson carries a modest Elo edge (1039 to 999), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Medeiros's knockout artist game against Jackson's wrestler approach. Medeiros is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jackson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medeiros throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jackson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yancy Medeiros over Damon Jackson.** The model gives Medeiros a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Derek Brunson (14-6) taking on Lorenz Larkin (4-5). Brunson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Larkin at 1501 versus Brunson at 1402. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Brunson's wrestler game against Larkin's striker approach. Brunson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Larkin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brunson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brunson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Larkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Derek Brunson over Lorenz Larkin.** The model gives Brunson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Anthony Hamilton (3-6) taking on Ruan Potts (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Hamilton.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hamilton at 722, Potts at 749. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hamilton throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Potts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Hamilton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anthony Hamilton over Ruan Potts.** We're leaning Hamilton here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Wade (4-2) taking on Cain Carrizosa (0-1).

Wade is rated at 1133 — 338 points above Carrizosa's 795. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carrizosa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Carrizosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Carrizosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chris Wade over Cain Carrizosa.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wade at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.