UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Cung Le (2-1). Bisping is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 392 points above Le's 1130. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Le throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Le is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Bisping over Cung Le.** We're leaning Bisping here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Tyron Woodley (9-5-1) taking on Dong Hyun Kim (13-3). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Woodley at 1461 versus Kim at 1318. That 143-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Kim has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Woodley's striker game against Kim's submission artist approach. Woodley brings a versatile approach, while Kim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodley throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Kim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Kim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over Tyron Woodley.** The model gives Kim a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Zhang Lipeng (2-1) taking on Brendan O'Reilly (1-2). Lipeng is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lipeng at 916 versus O'Reilly at 802. That 114-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lipeng throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lipeng is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Reilly has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zhang Lipeng over Brendan O'Reilly.** We're leaning Lipeng here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Guangyou Ning (2-1) taking on Jianping Yang (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ning at 1004 versus Yang at 915. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yang throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jianping Yang over Guangyou Ning.** The model gives Yang a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Sai Wang (0-1) taking on Danny Mitchell (0-1).

Wang is rated at 1020 — 164 points above Mitchell's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wang throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Danny Mitchell over Sai Wang.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitchell at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Alberto Mina (3-0) taking on Shinsho Anzai (2-1). Mina is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mina at 1186 versus Anzai at 1056. That 131-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Mina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anzai throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anzai is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Anzai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Alberto Mina over Shinsho Anzai.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mina at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Yuta Sasaki (4-4) taking on Roland Delorme (3-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sasaki at 1009 versus Delorme at 900. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Delorme throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Delorme is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Sasaki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Yuta Sasaki over Roland Delorme.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sasaki at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Colby Covington (12-4) taking on Anying Wang (1-0).

Covington is rated at 1630 — 675 points above Wang's 955. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wang throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Wang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anying Wang over Colby Covington.** We're leaning Wang here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Royston Wee (2-0) taking on Yao Zhikui (1-2). Wee is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Wee at 990 versus Zhikui at 857. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wee throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Zhikui has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Royston Wee over Yao Zhikui.** We're leaning Wee here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Milana Dudieva (1-1) taking on Elizabeth Phillips (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Phillips at 923 versus Dudieva at 837. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Phillips throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dudieva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Milana Dudieva over Elizabeth Phillips.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dudieva at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.