UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Colby Covington (12-4). Buckley will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Buckley at 1728 versus Covington at 1630. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Buckley's striker game against Covington's wrestler approach. Buckley brings a versatile approach, while Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Buckley is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Colby Covington.** We're leaning Buckley here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Cub Swanson (14-10) taking on Billy Quarantillo (6-4).

Swanson is rated at 1255 — 290 points above Quarantillo's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Swanson's striker game against Quarantillo's all-rounder approach. Swanson brings a versatile approach, while Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Swanson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Swanson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Cub Swanson over Billy Quarantillo.** The model gives Swanson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Manel Kape (6-3) taking on Bruno Silva (4-4). Kape will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Kape is rated at 1586 — 383 points above Silva's 1203. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kape throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Kape has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Manel Kape over Bruno Silva.** The model gives Kape a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Dustin Jacoby (9-6-1) taking on Vitor Petrino (5-2).

Jacoby is rated at 1374 — 179 points above Petrino's 1195. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Jacoby's striker game against Petrino's wrestler approach. Jacoby brings a versatile approach, while Petrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Dustin Jacoby.** The model gives Petrino a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Daniel Marcos (4-1) taking on Adrian Yanez (6-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Marcos at 1352 versus Yanez at 1203. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanez throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Marcos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Marcos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Daniel Marcos over Adrian Yanez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Marcos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Navajo Stirling (2-0) taking on Tuco Tokkos (0-2). Stirling will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Stirling is rated at 1202 — 203 points above Tokkos's 999. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tokkos throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tokkos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tokkos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Navajo Stirling over Tuco Tokkos.** The model gives Stirling a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Michael Johnson (15-15) taking on Ottman Azaitar (2-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 393 points above Azaitar's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Azaitar throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Johnson over Ottman Azaitar.** The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Joel Alvarez (7-2) taking on Drakkar Klose (9-3). Alvarez is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Alvarez is rated at 1564 — 167 points above Klose's 1397. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Alvarez rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Alvarez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Klose brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Alvarez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alvarez throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Klose is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Alvarez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Joel Alvarez over Drakkar Klose.** The model gives Alvarez a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Sean Woodson (7-1-1) taking on Fernando Padilla (2-1).

Woodson is rated at 1235 — 152 points above Padilla's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Woodson rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Padilla throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Woodson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean Woodson over Fernando Padilla.** The model gives Woodson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Felipe Lima (2-0) taking on Miles Johns (6-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lima at 1177 versus Johns at 1044. That 133-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miles Johns over Felipe Lima.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johns at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-3) taking on Jamey-Lyn Horth (3-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Horth.

There's a real Elo separation here: Maverick at 1264 versus Horth at 1183. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Maverick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Horth is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maverick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maverick throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Maverick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Jamey-Lyn Horth.** We're leaning Maverick here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Davey Grant (8-6) taking on Ramon Taveras (1-1).

Grant is rated at 1200 — 289 points above Taveras's 911. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Taveras has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ramon Taveras over Davey Grant.** The model gives Taveras a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Piera Rodriguez (3-2) taking on Josefine Knutsson (2-0). Rodriguez will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodriguez is rated at 1203 — 165 points above Knutsson's 1038. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Knutsson throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Piera Rodriguez over Josefine Knutsson.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rodriguez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.